US election 2024: Republican Donald Trump's likely routes to win back White House

Donald Trump has the White House within his grasp depending on which poll you read with many voters resonating with his message on the economy and tackling illegal immigration

Donald Trump is eyeing victory in the upcoming US Presidential Election with a host of factors pointing to the Republican winning the all-important race to 270 Electoral College votes.

The Republican candidate has many reasons to feel bullish about a return to the White House with his message on America's supposed decline resonating strongly with voters. Americans have been hit with soaring prices and inflation in the years following the Covid pandemic of 2020 to the point where it is the leading issue this election cycle.

Mr Trump has also vowed to begin mass deportations of illegal immigrants should he win on November 5, comments that have gone down well with his base. While his Democrat rival Kamala Harris is expected to win the popular vote - namely with more ballots cast in her favour - the Republican benefits from the US Electoral College.

The system, seen as somewhat byzantine outside the US, awards numerical values to states based on the number of Senators and Representatives they have. It is the key factor that saw Mr Trump win in 2016 despite his then-opponent Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote.

He has also benefitted from polling trends in his favour that show he has closed the gap on Ms Harris and even overtaken her in key battleground states, depending on the survey. While he is loathed by many in the US, the former president has endeared himself to his base unlike any other candidate for the past decade.

Here are the key factors that point to a possible victory for Mr Trump.

The Electoral College

America has an unusual way of voting for its president, with candidates racing to win 270 Electoral College votes, rather than the highest number of votes in their favour. The system gives huge weight to a handful of swing states that can tip the balance in one candidate's favour, even if they have fewer votes nationwide.

Mr Trump has previously flipped Democrat stronghold states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and has turned former battlegrounds - namely Florida and Ohio - into Republican bulwarks. This unpredictability gives Mr Trump an advantage that could see him secure the White House.

Dr Nicholas Higgins, associate professor and department chair of the political science department at North Greenville University, told The Mirror: "Because of the American Electoral College system, the Republican candidate is generally recognized to have a small advantage based upon the population distribution and the winner-take-all method of distribution.

"Because California, New York, and Illinois have large populations, but the electoral college votes would go to the Democratic candidate whether they won 55 per cent of the votes or 70 per cent of the votes, many democratic votes do not add any potential for a democratic victory."

Key voter issues

To quote a popular US political slogan, "It's the economy stupid." Consistently this election cycle voters have placed the state of the US economy as being their most important issue.

According to Pew Research, 81 per cent of all voters listed the economy as their top concern. It adds 93 per cent of Republicans view it as very important to their vote with 68 per cent of Democrats agreeing.

While the US economy is growing at an estimated rate of 2.8 per cent over the three months into September, many Americans are feeling the impact on their wallets. Surging prices due in part to inflation has led many Americans to tighten their belts and concentrate more on their outgoings.

Current polling trends

There is no doubt the Trump campaign was met with a serious setback when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Audiences and pundits alike widely believed the former president crushed Mr Biden in their debate in the summer with the Democrat looking incoherent at times.

Vice President Kamala Harris was given a substantial boost in the polls after she entered the race for the Democrats and does continue to hold a lead nationally when looking at the polling average. But Mr Trump has clawed back despite a less-than-stellar-debate performance against Ms Harris and has taken the lead in some swing states, depending on the survey.

This will give Mr Trump reasons to feel bullish as if he can flip enough blue states, he will secure the 270 electoral college votes to win the White House race.

A committed base

Mr Trump arguably enjoys support unlike any Republican figure since Ronald Raegan. While there are many who are put off by his rhetoric or being found guilty in court, millions of Americans view Mr Trump as a straight talker who doesn't behave like a standard politician.

This enthusiasm among his base, many of whom believe his unproven claims of electoral fraud during the 2020 election, will drive many to the polls in a way other Republican candidates in the past were unable to. He has also pulled Americans who typically would not vote into the Republican party.

Dr Higgins added: "A big part of the the last few weeks/days of the election is voter turnout. Trump's base is very loyal and have shown that they will turn out.

"Add to this that Trump is trying a novel strategy of reaching people who are rare/infrequent voters, that if successful (which is hard to determine, because infrequent voters are just that.. people who rarely turn out) might be enough to push him over in some swing states."

Shifting voter trends

After decades of trying to win over Black and Latino voters to the Republicans, Mr Trump appears to have finally done it. Young Black and Latino men are voting for Mr Trump in a way they simply have not before.

According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Mr Trump trails his rival by just two per cent among Hispanic men at 44 per cent to 46 per cent. This represents enormous progress given his 19-point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

While the Democrats have made more gains among women, the trend is seen as a boost by the Trump campaign that can see them over the line. These gains have come despite many illegal immigrants entering the US via the country's border with Mexico.