Strong Pixel 9 sales aren't just great news for Google, they're great news for Android

For nearly a decade now, Google's Pixel lineup has been a fan favorite among Android enthusiasts. Strong online fandoms don't always translate to real world popularity, of course — ask any die-hard Carly Rae Jepsen fan, ahem — and that's usually been the case for the Pixel. Despite steady year-over-year growth, Google's smartphone division only moved 10 million units in 2023, and that represented an all-time high. In comparison, Apple sold nearly 235 million iPhones in the same 12-month time period, with Samsung not too far behind.

But things might be turning around, as the last couple of weeks have been chock full of good news for Google's hardware sales. On the foot of the "highest-ever" quarterly sales following the launch of the Pixel 9, two back-to-back reports are painting a pretty bright picture for the future of our favorite Android smartphone six years running. And even if some of these claims are worth taking with a grain of salt, one thing's for sure: Google's smartphone strategy seems to be working.

It's been a month's worth of great news for Google's Pixel family

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves

Let's quickly break down all of the good news from the past few weeks. In October, during Google's Q3 2024 earning's call, the company confirmed "strong demand" for the Pixel 9 series, albeit without any further details on how that demand translated into final sales numbers. This echoed a report from Counterpoint Research earlier in the month, which found more Google smartphones sold in Q3 2024 than any other quarter on record. Again, no specific numbers here, though the vibes certainly feel strong.

This week, though, it seems like we're seeing a little more insight into just how successful the Pixel 9 lineup really is, led by yesterday's fairly shocking new report from StatCounter. Using data from more than 1.5 million websites, StatCounter found Pixel users made up 12.9 percent of the North American market, with that number jumping up to nearly 15 percent when focusing solely on the US. Factor in another Counterpoint Research report that contains the Pixel 9 Pro XL in the top 10 of premium US smartphone sales (h/t Ben Schoon at 9to5Google), and there's no other way to look at it: the Pixel series is really starting to look like a success.

Relatively speaking, that is. Not to pour too much cold water on this news, but it's worth reiterating just how far behind Google is compared to giants like Samsung and Apple. The Pixel still finds itself in the "other" category of most third-party smartphone analyst reports, and however the final 2024 numbers land, it'll almost certainly be peanuts compared to the competition.

Apple might be down 2 percent year-over-year in smartphone shipments, but it's still locked in with 54 percent of the US market. Meanwhile, StatCounter's reporting should be taken with a grain of salt until we see those numbers repeated quarter after quarter — it's simply too large of a jump to not be a little skeptical towards.

It's also worth remembering that this market is far different than a decade ago. US shoppers upgrading their smartphones today only have a few brands to select from, especially if they're shopping in a carrier store. Not only have LG and HTC left (or all but left) the industry, but smaller upstarts like OnePlus frequently go unstocked on shelves within Verizon or AT&T stores. If you aren't buying an iPhone, most of your premium options really do boil down to Samsung and Google.

This isn't just good news for Google — it's good news for Android

Here's why these numbers matter

Okay, with that pessimism out of the way, I do think the past few weeks point to a really bright future for mobile — not just for Google's hardware division, but for Android as a whole. If we take that StatCounter report at face value, the Pixel's massive jump in adoption seems to be pulling most of its growth from Apple, which is exactly the company Google has been chasing as of late. That makes plenty of sense — out of all of the excellent Android phones you can buy right now, the Pixel 9 feels the most like an iPhone, both aesthetically and from an overall software experience.

Tackling the iPhone's dominance in North America is no small feat. As I've previously covered, Apple's lock-in strategy with iOS has been a success by any measure, and considering the popularity it holds with teenagers and young adults specifically, Android's future in the US has seemed pretty bleak for quite some time. While I don't think this sudden round of good news for the Pixel proves that iOS is on track to fall backwards into second place any time soon, I do think having a third option to compete alongside Apple and Samsung is exactly what the doctor ordered for the industry's lack of innovation.

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If Google does want to convince iPhone owners to switch, now would be the time. Android 15 might've been a boring upgrade for end users, but it shows just how stable and refined Android really is as a platform. I've been pretty cold personally towards Google's suite of AI applications, but they're leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the mobile competition. In fact, iOS 18 and "Apple Intelligence" is an absolute bug-filled mess of an upgrade, one that — I think — really upsets Apple's reputation of reliability above all else. (Consider that a teaser for my upcoming iPhone 16 Pro Max review.)

If there's one thing Google needs to not do here, it's take its foot off the gas. The Pixel 9a's rumored early launch should provide a nice boost to sales early next year, especially if it holds onto that $500 price point. And if the Pixel 10 can follow its predecessor's lead in launching weeks ahead of the iPhone, rather than weeks behind, Google's usual non-stop advertising blitz could help convince even more disappointed iOS fans to potentially make the switch. A late launch — or, even worse, a buggy launch — could stop the company's rise in its tracks.

It'll be interesting to see how the Pixel 9 series fares through the end of the year, numbers we'll likely see in the first few weeks of 2025. While I don't expect the Pixel 9 Pro to make a noticeable dent in iPhone sales this time around, this sort of forward momentum is exactly what Google needs to cement itself as the "third option" alongside Samsung and Apple. Of course, that makes it all the more important to ensure that the Pixel experience is rock solid. On that front, only time will tell.

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