Raiders cost bettors, NFL upsets burn $2.2M in Circa Survivor entries

It’s been said that the only guarantee in life is that there are no guarantees.

The same can be said of trying to pick winners in the NFL, which confounded bettors for the third straight week to start the season and crushed the hopes and $14.3 million dreams of thousands of entries in the Circa Survivor contest.

The $1,000-entry Survivor has seen its record field slashed from 14,266 to 1,630 after 2,244 more entries — which equate to $2.2 million — were eliminated Sunday, led by the Browns (931), Buccaneers (667), Raiders (515) and 49ers (69).

A loss by the Bengals on Monday to the Commanders would eliminate another 988.

Bettors lost for the third consecutive week Sunday, as seven underdogs won outright while going 7-6 against the spread.

The biggest favorite on the board not only lost for the third straight week as the Browns (-6½) were beaten by the Giants 21-15, but the four biggest favorites all went down, The Buccaneers (-6) lost to the Broncos 26-7, the 49ers (-6) blew a 14-point lead in a 27-24 defeat to the Rams, and the Raiders (-5½) were whipped by the Panthers 36-22.

“These days, the NFL is like our best friend. It’s so unpredictable,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “Especially for the average fan out there, trying to pick winners has been very difficult.”

Raiders’ loss big for books

Carolina, which was outscored 73-13 in two losses to open the season, came alive under veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, who replaced 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns to spoil the Raiders’ home opener.

“Sometimes you get that little jolt when a bad coach gets replaced or the quarterback gets benched,” Caesars Sportsbook head of U.S. trading Eric Fenstermaker said. “You get kind of a fresh start, and he might’ve jump-started their season.

“I have no idea what to make of the Raiders. Just when their season looked to be on track, it got derailed immediately.”

The loss by the Raiders, who were coming off the biggest upset of Week 2 at Baltimore, was the biggest win for the books.

“Even though we saw some sharp action early in the week on the Panthers plus the points, we were still huge Panthers fans,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said.

Two other big upset wins for the books were the Packers (+3, beat Titans 30-14) and Eagles (+2½, beat Saints 15-12).

New Orleans, which exploded for 91 points in a surprising 2-0 start, took a 12-7 lead with 2:03 left on Derek Carr’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Chris Olave. But Philadelphia answered with a touchdown with 1:01 to go on Saquon Barkley’s 4-yard run a play after Dallas Goedert broke free on third-and-16 for a 61-yard catch and run.

“People really bought into the Saints after seeing them trounce Dallas (44-19) last week,” Fenstermaker said. “As much as Philly tried to give that game away, they somehow snuck it out for us.”

Quarterback Malik Willis guided Green Bay to a convincing upset win over his former team in the Titans, the so-called sharp side. Tennessee quarterback Will Levis threw three passes that resulted in touchdowns, but one of them was to the Packers, as he threw his second pick-six of the season.

“You’ve got an abundance of young quarterbacks in the league who are still struggling,” Esposito said.

Bettor games

The Ravens delivered the biggest win for bettors. Barely. Baltimore (-1½) blew most of a 28-6 lead at Dallas before holding on for a 28-25 win and cover.

“You talk about the parity in the league,” Esposito said. “After three weeks, the Cowboys, Ravens and 49ers are all 1-2. And the Vikings and Seahawks are 3-0.”

Unders went 9-4. Bettors who wagered on the Giants-Browns game to go over 38 suffered a bad beat when New York running back Devin Singletary broke free for an apparent 44-yard touchdown run that would’ve put the Giants ahead 27-15. But he slid at the 1-yard line so New York could run out the clock.

$1 million bet

A bettor at Caesars Palace on Sunday wagered $1 million on the Chiefs on the money line (-175) over the Falcons.

The gambler won $571,000 after Atlanta twice turned it over on downs deep in Kansas City territory in the final minutes of a 22-17 loss.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are the closest thing to a guarantee in the NFL.