Colorado vs. Texas Tech, Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech predictions: College football odds

Is it possible that two of the most famous coaches in college football are undervalued at this point in the season?

Coach Prime and Rich Rod are both road chalk, and my numbers indicate they’re not laying enough. 

Colorado at Texas Tech 

How are the Buffaloes, of all teams, still flying under the national radar?

Coach Deion Sanders and his players were the definition of a “public” team last fall.

All they did was generate bulletin board material for their opponents in 2023 and as a result, they got drilled in the second half of the season.

But this time around, Colorado is ascending as we hit the stretch run of the season. 

The Buffs are 6-2 ATS this season, which is the fifth-best mark among Power Four teams.

Their appreciable weaknesses from last season have either been masked or corrected. 

For example, after taking a disastrous amount of sacks last season (4.67 per game, 132nd), Shedeur Sanders is operating in clean pockets, for the most part.

Colorado ranks 51st in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking grades, and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has protected Sanders with the screen game and quick hitters inside of 10 yards downfield. 

Sanders has been surgical in that range when throwing to the perimeter (87.5%).

Despite the absence of a running game, CU has cracked the top 20 in passing success despite everyone knowing that Sanders is going to spin it on nearly every play (37.5 attempts per game).

Colorado is averaging a hair below 37 points per game in Big 12 play, which speaks to its improved line play and scheme. 

Five of Texas Tech’s six conference games have been decided by one possession, but the Red Raiders are leaking oil offensively.

Behren Morton’s QBR in the past four games has sunk down to the lower 40s after a promising start to the season.

Colorado’s disruptive defense — Havoc (34th), sacks (23rd), and pass breakups (seventh) — is set to eat him up. 

Recommendation: Colorado -4.5. 

Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech 

It didn’t happen immediately upon his arrival, but after 32 games as Jacksonville State’s head coach, it’s safe to say that the Rich Rodriguez offense is now firing on all cylinders. 

Rich Rod’s famed spread option offense is at its most dangerous when he has a savvy dual-threat quarterback and a decisive one-cut running back manning his backfield.

Tyler Huff is that quarterback and emerging superstar Tre Stewart is that game-changing running back. 

In Conference USA play, JSU has averaged 47.5 points and 535 yards per game.

Those are far and away the best figures in the conference and the Gamecocks’ running game is the third-most prolific ground attack in the country (269.6 ypg). 

Stewart, in particular, has been a Steve Slaton clone, amassing 694 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in his last four games.

Louisiana Tech’s front seven has shown fight this season, but it hasn’t faced an offense this dynamic all season.

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In fact, the Bulldogs have faced six opponents outside of PFF’s top 90 in terms of offensive grade.

It is going to be a rude awakening on Saturday afternoon in Ruston. 

When Louisiana Tech has the ball, it’s going to find the sledding difficult because Jacksonville State is fundamentally sound in its tackling (22nd) and red zone defense (29th).

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, love to shoot themselves in the foot.

Sonny Cumbie’s team ranks 131st in offensive success rate, 121st in giveaways and 106th in Havoc allowed. 

One final note on this game, Rich Rod has been a safe bet when he enters with a rest advantage.

Since taking the reigns at Jacksonville State, he’s 7-2 ATS in situations like this one. 

Recommendation: Jacksonville State -10.