2024 college basketball predictions: Why the UAB Blazers will make noise

College basketball, once besieged with scheduling issues, is finally providing the public with marquee matchups in the early portion of its season. 

This uptick in nationally ranked non-conference matchups and the expansion of multiple-team events (MTEs) is attracting larger audiences. 

This month, college basketball is awash in exciting tournaments, from the Maui Invitational and the Battle 4 Atlantis to the Legends Classic and Paradise Jam. 

There are two reasons I’m on the UAB Blazers to win the Paradise Jam at +350 (FanDuel Sportsbook) — path and personnel.

Let’s start with the path down in St. Thomas. 

Paradise Jam prediction

The Blazers’ side of the bracket locks them into an opener against Longwood.

The Lancers made a shocking run in the Big South tournament last spring, following an uninspiring 6-10 regular season in conference play.

They got hot late and stole the auto bid away from High Point and UNC Asheville. 

This season, they have a mix of talented transfers in their backcourt from such schools as Davidson, Drake, St. Bonaventure, and Tennessee.

But their offensive engine appears to be D-II transfer KJ McClurg, who should struggle when checked by an experienced UAB backcourt.

I doubt Longwood will be able to keep pace with a UAB offense that finished in the top 60 in KenPom last season and returns an elite mid-major starting five. 

Should the Blazers cruise past Longwood, they’ll draw the winner of Illinois State vs. McNeese. 

Assuming McNeese prevails, UAB matches up well against Will Wade’s team.

The Cowboys are still exploring options at point guard now that Shahada Wells is playing professionally overseas.

Wells was lethal from 3-point range and helped facilitate open looks for shooters last season. The result was a top-10 finish in 3-point accuracy. 

The lack of a true point guard to initiate offense was on full display in McNeese’s opener, a seven-point loss at South Dakota State.

If it opts to run its offense through forward Christian Shumate, I think UAB will win going away.

Yaxel Lendeborg took home Defensive POY honors in the AAC last year and should neutralize McNeese’s best offensive option on the low block. 

A pair of wins would place the Blazers in the Paradise Jam title game, likely drawing Liberty or Kansas State. The Blazers would likely be a four- or five-point dog to K-State.

If they draw Liberty, UAB would go off as a one-possession favorite, according to projections from Evan Miya. 

Either way, hedge opportunities exist should UAB get to the title game. 

Pairing the Blazers’ favorable path with Lendeborg’s upside is why I can’t pass them up at this price.

Lendeborg is a borderline All-American, capable of impacting the game on the glass as a rim defender and volume scorer. 

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He’s a walking double-double and has recorded two or more blocks in six of his last eight games since last spring.

He’s also adept at drawing fouls, which could be the difference when drawing McNeese’s Shumate and K-State’s Coleman Hawkins. 

Lendeborg got to the line at the 17th-highest rate among mid-major bigs last season.

So whether he’s filling up the stat sheet or sending opposing bigs to the bench, he’s arguably the most impactful player taking the floor in this tournament. 

This point spread has ticked up from +300 following UAB’s loss to Vermont.

But the Catamounts will likely spend most of this season inside the top 100, which is far from a “bad loss” for the Blazers. 

It’s time to buy low on UAB.

PICK: UAB Blazers to win the Paradise Jam at +350 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.