Mets vs. Phillies prediction: MLB picks, odds, best bets Thursday

· New York Post

Three weeks after getting yanked from the Phillies’ starting rotation, Taijuan Walker is back with another shot at redeeming a glum campaign in Thursday’s clash with the Mets. 

Walker is afforded the start after impressing Rob Thomson with the three scoreless relief innings he dealt against the Mets in the 6-4 victory Saturday. 

I’m not holding my breath: Thomson’s hand is forced to lend Walker another look after unsuccessfully trialing three other pitchers in that No. 5 spot with the postseason nearing. 

The regression in Walker’s game is discernible.

Per Statcast, he resides in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in expected ERA, bearing a 6.55.

In his last start on Aug. 28, the Phillies were crushed, 10-0, after Walker relinquished 13 hits and six earned runs in as many innings.

He has struck out two hitters in his last 14 innings as he carries his lowest strikeout per nine rate in his career. 

Luis Severino faces him on the opposite end of the spectrum, stringing together a renaissance season.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) throws a pitch against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

He has adjusted his pitch-tipping issues while regaining confidence in his fastball, which has put away hitters at almost a three percent higher rate than his abysmal 2023, according to Statcast. 

In the five starts since pitching a complete-game shutout against the Marlins, Severino is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA. 

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He’s looking to correct the pair of homers and three earned runs the Phillies banked off of him in Saturday’s no-decision.

Now Severino returns to face them with comfort inside Citi Field, which is where much of his success has come; he sports a 2.86 ERA there — almost two runs lower than his road ERA. 

Walker gained some confidence back out of the bullpen, but Thomson’s pivot back to him is a desperation move that Severino’s rhythm is primed to exploit. 

THE PLAY: Mets moneyline (-135, DraftKings)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.