Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction: ‘Monday Night Football’ odds, pick, best bet

· New York Post

On “Monday Night Football,” the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what should be a thrilling battle in prime time between playoff hopefuls. 

In this article, we’ll break down the matchup and assess where the betting value lies in the game. 

When the Buccaneers have the ball 

Baker Mayfield is piecing together an excellent year under first-year coordinator Liam Coen. He has thrown for a league-leading 21 touchdowns, ranking top eight in both yards per attempt and EPA per pass. 

Unfortunately, Tampa Bay lost Chris Godwin for the rest of the season, and Mike Evans will be out with a hamstring injury on Monday. 

This game won’t be easy for Mayfield on the road without his top receivers. The Chiefs rank fourth among NFL stop units in defensive DVOA. The Chiefs can be somewhat vulnerable against the pass, however — they rank 23rd in Pass Success Rate allowed. 

The Buccaneers could lean on tight end Cade Otton. The Chiefs have allowed 76.2 yards per game to tight ends, the most in the NFL. 

Tampa Bay’s run game will likely struggle here, as well. The Chiefs have the second-best run defense in the NFL by DVOA, ranking first in adjusted line yards allowed to running backs. 

Rachaad White and Bucky Irving will both see opportunities in this game, but don’t expect either to find much success on the ground. 

Travis Kelce should have more opportunity for the Chiefs since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

When the Chiefs have the ball 

This season has been far from Patrick Mahomes’ best. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has thrown just eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ranks just 17th among qualified quarterbacks in the all-encompassing EPA+CPOE metric. 

However, this matchup should provide plenty of opportunities to get back on track, as Tampa Bay ranks among the bottom seven NFL defenses in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate allowed. 

Veteran DeAndre Hopkins should be poised for more of a role in the offense in his second game with the team, while rookie Xavier Worthy has continued to emerge as a difference-maker. Most importantly, Travis Kelce turned back the clock last week with 10 catches for 90 yards. 

Todd Bowles loves to send extra pressure after opposing quarterbacks — the Buccaneers operate with the sixth-highest blitz rate in the NFL. Mahomes has spent much of his career dissecting the blitz, and he ranks third among NFL QBs in adjusted completion rate against the blitz this year, per Pro Football Focus. 

Bucky Irving looks like one of the better young running backs in the NFL. AP

Final Verdict 

The Buccaneers are 9-point road underdogs in this game, which likely means we’ll see many passing attempts from Mayfield as the offense looks to play catch-up. 

The Buccaneers rank seventh in early down pass play rate this season, as Coen hasn’t stayed overly committed to the run game in adverse situations. 

Betting on the NFL?

Mayfield has finished with 45 and 50 pass attempts over the past two weeks, and against a stout Chiefs run defense, I’ll bet on another game of heavy passing volume for Mayfield and the Buccaneers. 

Recommendation: Baker Mayfield Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-114, BetRivers)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.