Opta Supercomputer predicts Arsenal collapse as new Premier League champions crowned

The Premier League is seven games into the new season, but Arsenal's underlying numbers are already causing concern as the Gunners chase their first title win for 20 years

A new supercomputer has predicted Arsenal will collapse to an eighth-place finish if their current form continues.

The Gunners started the season with hopes of ending a 20-year wait for a fourth Premier League trophy. They have finished as runners-up to Manchester City for two years running under boss Mikel Arteta.

So far, their campaign has started well, with five wins and two draws putting them third in the Premier League table. City are ahead of them in second, with Liverpool the early leaders under new manager Arne Slot.

But the Gunners' underlying numbers are causing some concern and could lead to an unexpected collapse. So far Arteta's men have scored 15 goals and conceded just six as they have amassed the same points as City.

But according to a new supercomputer from Opta, there could be trouble ahead for Arsenal. The stats company have used their expected points model to find out which teams are over or underperforming this season.

The model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times.

The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose. Arteta will not be pleased to see that the model suggests they should be sitting eighth instead.

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A quirk of circumstances may be behind their lowly standing in that supercomputer. The Gunners were reduced to 10 men against both Brighton and Manchester City, with their resulting move to a more defensive system in those games allowing their opponents to rack up opportunities.

Meanwhile, they were also able to beat Aston Villa despite Unai Emery's men having the better of the chances. It should be seen as an impressive feat then that the Gunners sit as one of the frontrunners in the title race.

Currently leading the way though is Liverpool and the Opta model shows that their position is fully deserved. Slot’s side have conceded just two goals so far this season, and that’s come from a league-low 5.2 expected goals against.

Premier League table according to Opta's supercomputer

1. Liverpool

2. Chelsea

3. Manchester City

4. Tottenham

5. Aston Villa

6. Fulham

7. Bournemouth

8. Arsenal

9. Brighton

10. Manchester United

11. Newcastle

12. Nottingham Forest

13. West Ham

14. Brentford

15. Crystal Palace

16. Southampton

17. Everton

18. Wolves

19. Leicester City

20. Ipswich Town

At +8.9, their positive expected goals difference is comfortably the best of any team. So may be surprised to see that the model suggests it should be Chelsea who sit in second place, rather than perrenial champions City.

Home draws against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest have cost them, with the Blues 'winning' those games on the expected goals model. In the model, City are just behind them in third place and Tottenham round off the top four.

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