UFC 307 Preview, Odds, Picks And Predictions: Pennington Vs. Pena

03 Oct 2024 by Trent Reinsmith · Forbes

TORONTO, ONTARIO - JANUARY 20: Raquel Pennington reacts after her victory against Mayra Bueno Silva ... [+] of Brazil in a UFC bantamweight championship bout during the UFC 297 event at Scotiabank Arena on January 20, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Two titles are on the line on Saturday on the UFC 307 pay-per-view fight card. In the evening’s main event, UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira looks to make the third defense of his crown when he faces Khalil Rountree Jr. Before that fight takes place, Raquel Pennington puts her UFC women’s bantamweight title on the line against former champ, Julianna Pena.

UFC 307 takes place on Saturday, October 5 from Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.

Below we look at the UFC 307 co-main event, Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena.

Careers

Raquel Pennington

TORONTO, ONTARIO - JANUARY 20: (L-R) Raquel Pennington punches Mayra Bueno Silva of Brazil in a UFC ... [+] bantamweight championship bout during the UFC 297 event at Scotiabank Arena on January 20, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Raquel Pennington (16-8) joined the UFC in November 2013 after serving as a cast member of The Ultimate Fighter. A member of Miesha Tate’s team on the season of TUF where Tate coached opposite Ronda Rousey. Pennington won two TUF fights, losing in the semifinals to Jessica Rakoczy.

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Pennington was 3-3 as a pro when she made her UFC debut, defeating Roxanne Modafferi via decision. She followed that victory with a 1-2 run with defeats at the hands of Jessica Andrade and Holly Holm.

Following her February 2015 split-decision loss to Holm, Pennington went on a four-fight winning streak. That run was bookended by a submission win over Andrade and a decision victory over Tate.

An ATV accident, in which Pennington broke her leg, knocked her out of action for 18 months. When Pennington returned to the Octagon in May 2018 she was the No. 2 ranked fighter in the 135-pound division. Her opponent in that return bout was women’s bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes. Nunes knocked out Pennington in the second round.

A November 2018 matchup against Germaine de Randamie saw Pennington lose by decision. A split-decision win over Irene Aldana followed that loss. However, Pennington could not maintain momentum and she dropped a decision to Holly Holm in January 2020.

Since her loss to Holm, Pennington is unbeaten with a 6-0 record. In January she faced Mayra Bueno Silva for the women’s 135-pound title left vacant when Amanda Nunes retired. Pennington claimed the belt via decision.

She has 11 decision wins, four submissions, and one knockout win. Pennington has six decision losses, one knockout defeat and one submission setback.

Julianna Pena

DALLAS, TEXAS - JULY 30: Julianna Pena is introduced prior to facing Amanda Nunes of Brazil in the ... [+] UFC bantamweight championship fight during the UFC 277 event at American Airlines Center on July 30, 2022 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC

Julianna Pena (11-5) earned her UFC contract by winning Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. A member of Team Tate, Pena knocked out Jessica Rakoczy in the first round of their November 2013 matchup. The win moved Pena’s record to 5-2.

Pena ran off three victories after that, beating Milana Dudieva, Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano before Valentina Shevchenko ended her winning streak with a January 2017 armbar submission.

In October 2017 Pena announced her pregnancy. When she returned to action in July 2019, Pena defeated Nicco Montano by decision. A submission loss to De Randamie in October 2020 followed.

In January 2021, Pena submitted Sara McMann. Pena, sitting at No. 3 in the women’s bantamweight rankings, earned a shot at Amanda Nunes and her bantamweight title in December 2021. She entered that contest as a -650 underdog to the champ, who was the -1000 betting favorite.

In one of the more shocking upsets in UFC title fight history, Pena submitted Nunes in the second round, ending the Brazilian’s title reign.

Pena’s time at the top of the division was short, as Nunes won their July 2022 rematch by decision.

Pena has not fought since that loss, a trilogy bout with Nunes was scheduled for UFC 289, but Pena was forced out of that contest due to broken ribs she sustained while training for the title fight.

Pena has three wins by knockout, five submission victories, and three decisions. Her losses have come by knockout (one), submission (two) and decision (two).

UFC 307 Betting Odds: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena

The odds for this title fight have held fairly steady. Pennington opened as the -175 betting favorite. Today she is listed at -180. Meanwhile, Pena opened at +130. Today, the ex-champ is +133.

Significant Stats

Pennington lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52 percent. She absorbs 3.29 significant strikes per minute, and her striking defense is 60 percent. The champ averages 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, and her takedown accuracy is 27 percent. Pennington has a takedown defense of 63 percent.

Pena lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 47 percent. Her striking defense is 50 percent, and she gets hit 2.30 times per minute. The ex-champ lands 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 55 percent. Pena’s takedown defense is 23 percent.

UFC 307 Picks and Predictions: Pennington vs. Pena

The pick is for Raquel Pennington to grind out a decision win and retain her title against Julianna Pena.