Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 307
by Andrew Richardson · MMAmania.comUltimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista will go to war this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Generally, we hate to see aging legends return after retirement. Former Featherweight kingpin and all-time great candidate Aldo continues to buck trends, however. The 38-year-old Brazilian returned after nearly two years of retirement to beat the breaks off Jonathan Martinez, a talented contender at the height of his powers.
“Scarface” has still got it, only losing to champion Merab Dvalishvili in the last four years.
As for Bautista, the MMA Lab-trained representative has certainly earned this step up in competition. Winner of his last six, Bautista has steadily climbed the ladder, scoring a variety of finishes in the process of proving himself a genuine Bantamweight contender.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Aldo vs. Bautista Betting Odds
- Jose Aldo victory: +124
- Jose Aldo via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Jose Aldo via submission: TBD
- Jose Aldo via decision: TBD
- Mario Bautista victory: -148
- Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Mario Bautista via submission: TBD
- Mario Bautista via decision: TBD
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Aldo Wins
Now in the twilight of his career, Aldo somehow still remains a fairly elite Bantamweight, as well as the only man to stop all of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. A masterful striker with the best takedown defense in mixed martial arts (MMA) history, Aldo’s Achilles heel is likely his output and conditioning.
At high elevation in Salt Lake City, that’s a concern.
Aldo actually won the first round against “The Machine” in Salt Lake two years ago, but he just didn’t do much for the next two rounds and coughed up a decision. Whether elevation or general cardio was to blame, Aldo can’t let that happen here.
Fortunately, Bautista cannot win this fight without exchanging with Aldo. In his last bout, Aldo controlled the range and flow of the fight perfectly by picking apart Martinez and interrupting his movement. Martinez couldn’t get anything going, and so he couldn’t wear on Aldo’s gas tank and try to take over via volume.
Expect Aldo to attempt the same here.
How Bautista Wins
Bautista wrestled in high school, has a jiu-jitsu black belt, and has good power in his hands. The well-rounded rising contender likes to put the pace on his opposition, really forcing the issue and putting his foes in bad position when they respond poorly to his pressure.
If we look at Aldo’s past defeats, Bautista seems more able to replicate the success of Max Holloway or Petr Yan than Alexander Volkanovski or Marlon Moraes. Relentless pressure, feints, and combination boxing is a better bet for Bautista than trying to outfox Aldo at distance, particularly since he’ll have elevation on his side.
Of course, pressuring Aldo is not easy. The Brazilian has a lot of tricks up his sleeves, and this is only a three-round fight. To make the most of this strategy, Bautista has to try to overload Aldo’s senses with constant feints and misdirection. He also cannot let Aldo be the only man in the cage punching the body, which could go a long way in slowing the former champion down.
Aldo vs. Bautista Prediction
I know this isn’t an “X-Factor” article, but the “X-Factor” here is definitely the elevation. Can Aldo keep up his usual pace or something close to it in Salt Lake City at 38 years of age? Smart money says no, because every trend in the book says that 38-year-old Bantamweights don’t win fights against good, ranked opposition in their prime.
Keep that bit of logic and history in mind before tailing my prediction, but I believe Aldo can do it. Simply put, it takes a generational talent to out-strike Aldo even at this stage of the game. Dvalishvili was able to sneak one away from “Junior” by holding him along the fence, but he’s the best in the world at 135 pounds right now, and it was still far from impressive.
Bautista doesn’t have the chain wrestling or otherworldly physicality of Dvalishvili. He has to strike with Aldo, and elevation or not, that very rarely goes well for most.
Prediction: Aldo via decision
LIVE! Watch UFC 307 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
Championship Doubleheader! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Sat., Oct. 5, 2024, with a pair of thrilling championship bouts at the helm. In UFC 307’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event, Light Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, goes for his third successful title defense of 2024 when he collides with No. 8-ranked contender, Khalil Rountree Jr., in a battle of ferocious knockout artists. Meanwhile, in UFC 307’s championship co-headliner, women’s Bantamweight roost-ruler, Raquel Pennington, defends against former titleholder and No. 1-seeded contender, Julianna Pena, in a grudge match dating back to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 more than one decade ago. UFC 307 will also feature the return of former pound-for-pound great, Jose Aldo, as well Kayla Harrison, Kevin Holland and so much more! It’s must-watch action from “SLC!” UFC 307’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (Prelims card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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