UFC Paris preview: ‘Moicano vs. Saint Denis’ predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship its cast and crew across the world for the upcoming UFC Paris fight card, locked and loaded for tomorrow afternoon (Sat., Sept. 28, 2023) from inside Accor Arena in Paris, France, featuring a 155-pound headliner between all-action Brazilian banger Renato Moicano and homegrown hero Benoit Saint Denis. Like most “Fight Night” cards, you’ll need a subscription to ESPN+ to stream this weekend’s event (sign up here).

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the middleweight showdown between Top 10 title contenders Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Paris main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Moicano vs. Saint Denis” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Paris live results and play-by-play click here.

Let’s get down to business.

155 lbs.: Renato Carneiro vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Renato “Moicano” Carneiro
Record: 19-5-1 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +230
Wins: 1 KO/TKO, 10 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11” | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.38 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.68 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 1.89 (45% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Jalin Turner

Benoit “God of War” Saint Denis
Record: 13-2 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -285
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.70 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.98 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 4.76 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 69%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Dustin Poirier

Renato Carneiro has been with the promotion for nearly a decade and this marks his second UFC main event during that span, the first coming against “The Korean Zombie” back in June 2019. The Brazilian is celebrated for his live-by-the-sword offense; though surprisingly, “Moicano” has just two post-fight bonuses to his credit. Carneiro is a durable lightweight with top shelf submission skills but his striking sucks. He’s got just one knockout in 25 professional fights and that came over Jalin Turner at UFC 300, a fight that proved “The Tarantula” has a brain roughly the same size as his favorite spider. After getting clobbered by Rafael Fiziev at UFC 256, Carneiro roared back to capture five of his next six and is currently the winner of three straight, proving you don’t need to be a knockout artist to make a run in the 155-pound weight class.

“Benoit Saint Denis is not easy money, and that’s why he’s in the position he is right now,” Moicano told reporters at the UFC Paris media day. “We’re fighting in France, right? UFC knows his value, but I’m here to prove I’m better than him. I’m here to beat him. I think the rankings, they don’t matter. I think this sport, we have to try to see like the popularity, the momentum. And even though Benoit Saint Denis is ranked behind me, I think he has a lot of momentum. I think he has a lot of popularity, especially in Europe, and I think that could catapult me, not to the rankings, but to popularity and I could get even better fights.”

Benoit Saint Denis has certainly lived up to his “God of War” moniker and seemed destined to blast his way into title contention. Unfortunately for the 28 year-old Frenchman, he tried (and failed) to beat Dustin Poirier at his own game in the UFC 299 co-main event. Saint Denis later blamed the loss on Staph infection, claiming he didn't have the juice to last more than one round, but he certainly didn’t look any slower in the second stanza — he just got creamed by an uppercut, never got his legs back, and went down in flames. We’ve seen Poirier do that to multiple lightweights, including Conor McGregor, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez, among others, so it’s not like “BSD” got popped and dropped by some unranked chump. Regardless, I’m not expecting Saint Denis to change his approach for this fight — even with his new striking coach — because it’s likely to prove victorious at UFC Paris.

“Everything is open, everything is to take,” Saint Denis told reporters at the UFC Paris media day (courtesy of La Sueur). “I’m here to take everything I can. First off, I need to put on a huge performance against Moicano. He’s a tough fight. I’m expecting a tough fight, and it’s going to be a war. Expect me to do my best to climb the division. Of course, what we want is the same fighter with a bit more responsibility defensively. This has been one of the keys around my preparation, and I’m ready to give a war and show this off. I’m a complete mixed martial artist, so it can go anywhere. We will bring it anywhere that we can have our way.”

You only need to look at one stat to figure this one out: Saint Denis lands 5.70 significant strikes per minute and Carneiro absorbs 3.68 significant strikes per minute. “Moicano” is going down and he’s going down in a big way.

Prediction: Saint Denis def. Carneiro by technical knockout

185 lbs.: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Nassourdine Imavov
Record: 14-4, 1 NC | Age: 29 | Betting line: -220
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.58 | Striking accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.33 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 0.98 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 74%
Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Jared Cannonier

Brendan “All In” Allen
Record: 24-5 | Age: 28 | Betting line: +180
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 14 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.98 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.83 | Striking Defense: 47%
Takedown Average: 1.74 (47% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 58%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Split decision win over Chris Curtis

Nassourdine Imavov is fast approaching his four-year anniversary with UFC. During that time, he’s racked up a 6-2 record with one “No Contest” while entering this bout on the strength of back-to-back wins over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. There were cries of an early stoppage when he planished the “Killa Gorilla” at UFC Louisville but let’s face it, Cannonier was already on Queer Street and the stoppage probably did his brain a favor. I think a lot of pundits (present company included) were lukewarm on the Frenchman after his UFC Vegas 67 loss to Sean Strickland in early 2023 — but that’s only because we didn't yet realize that “Tarzan” was championship material and good enough to dethrone the likes of Israel Adesanya. Imavov is in his fighting prime at age 29 and brings a solid standup game into tomorrow night’s battle, punctuated by both speed and volume.

“I’m the fastest fighter in this weight class,” Imavov told UFC.com. “I could even fight in welterweight, but I’m very comfortable in middleweight. I’m the fastest striker in the division, and I think he hasn’t faced someone that strikes as fast, as accurate and as strong as me. And I don’t think he has a big chin, so let’s see on Saturday night. We don’t underestimate no one. This guy is 12-2 in the UFC, he’s on a seven-fight win streak, and we know he’s very strong, he’s a very tough fighter. We know he’s very strong, but he’s not as strong as me. That’s it.”

Brendan Allen has spent the better part of 2024 complaining about his position in the UFC rankings and can’t seem to figure out why his seven-fight win streak hasn’t led to a middleweight title shot. Not having a victory over anyone ranked in the division Top 10 probably has something to do with it, but I guess it’s just easier to blame the media. Allen cut his teeth on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019 and has proven to be a very dangerous submission fighter, but only has one knockout victory in 14 trips to the Octagon. I don’t expect that to change at UFC Paris as “All In” will be outgunned on the feet and likely hunting for the takedown to help facilitate his grappling game. Imavov has pretty solid takedown defense so this could turn out to be a long night for Allen, unless his opponent runs out of gas late in the fight.

“When I really break him down, I think I’m better than him everywhere,” Allen told UFC.com. “I think he’s got the advantage, maybe in speed, but I have the advantage everywhere else. I think I’m just as fast but I’m definitely stronger. I think I’m bigger, stronger. I think my cardio is better, my technical abilities are better, striking and on the ground. I’m tougher, more experienced. He is the favorite for whatever the reason may be. We can go on about his resume, his accolades or whatever, but for whatever the case may be, he’s the favorite. I’m going to beat him in his hometown. I’m going to beat him in front of his people, and I’m going to do it very convincingly.”

Allen is going to spend most of this fight trying to get Imavov to the floor, which is likely to take away the Frenchman’s chances for the knockout. Instead, Imavov will probably sweep the scorecards after 25 minutes of spamming jabs, mixed in with the occasional wall work.

Prediction: Imavov def. Allen by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Paris main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

LIVE! Stream UFC Paris On ESPN+

BANTAMWEIGHT BATTLE! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to Ball Arena in Denver, Colo., on Sat., Aug. 24, 2024, for the first time since the historic 25th anniversary event in 2018 with a meaningful (albeit short-notice) showdown between top-ranked women’s Flyweight contenders Rose Namajunas (No. 6) vs. Tracy Cortez (No. 11). In UFC Denver’s co-main event, a thrilling Lightweight bout sees Denver’s own, Drew Dober, lock horns with Jean Silva, who is coming off a blistering knockout over Charles Jourdain just a few weeks ago (watch it).

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Paris news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Moicano vs. Saint Denis” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.