UFC Edmonton preview: ‘Moreno vs. Albazi’ predictions

Jesse Holland is among the longest-tenured media professionals in the combat sports news space, covering MMA, professional wrestling and boxing on a full-time basis since early 2004.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship its cast and crew across the continent for the upcoming UFC Edmonton fight card, locked and loaded for tomorrow night (Sat., Nov. 2, 2024) from inside Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, featuring a 125-pound headliner between former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and longtime division contender Amir Albazi.

Like most “Fight Night” cards, you’ll need a subscription to ESPN+ to stream this weekend’s event (sign up here).

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the women’s flyweight showdown between Top 5 title contenders Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Edmonton main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Moreno vs. Albazi” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Edmonton live results and play-by-play click here.

Let’s get down to business.

125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi

Brandon “Assassin Baby” Moreno
Record: 21-8-2 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -175
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 11 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 8 DEC
Height: 5’7” | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.87 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.63 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 1.74 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 63%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval

Amir “The Prince” Albazi
Record: 17-1 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +145
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.80 | Striking accuracy: 39%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.07 | Striking Defense: 63%
Takedown Average: 1.71 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 40%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Split decision win over Kai Kara-France

Brandon Moreno returns to competition looking to snap just the second two-fight losing streak of his illustrious combat sports career, which includes a flyweight championship and multiple UFC main events. His comeback timeline is a bit surprising considering the fuss he made about stepping away from the sport back in late March, which left him out of action for roughly six months. To put that absence into perspective, UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria was gone even longer, for no particular reason, so this next fight for the “Assassin Baby” feels right on schedule — even though Moreno claims to have greatly benefited from the absence.

It also helps that he’s no longer charged with being the face of the division.

“My energy right now feels amazing,” Moreno told reporters at the UFC Edmonton media day (watch it here). “I feel so hype. It’s crazy how my last two training camps I didn’t feel like this. I feel all the stress, all the responsibilities. At some point that exploded my mind and I wasn’t really enjoying these kind of moments. Now I feel like before when you start your career with the UFC. I tried to recover my body, recovery my mind, heal some injuries that were bothering me in my last training camps. Now I feel perfect.”

“I feel very frustrated because even when I lost my last two fights, I feel in my prime,” Moreno continued. “I feel very strong. I feel stronger. I feel with better technique. I feel with more knowledge about the fight game. Just the result isn’t what I’ve been having in my last couple of fights. Now my goal is to show that to the world. To show all my hard work at the gym, and that’s it.”

Amir Albazi knows a thing or two about taking time off, having missed more than a year of competition due to health issues. In fact, the situation was precarious enough to warrant heart surgery, sending “The Prince” to the injured reserves in mid-2023. That was a tough pill to swallow, from a matchmaking perspective, considering his place in the Top 5 of a division already into reruns. Now fully recovered, Albazi hopes to pick up where he left off, having already captured six in a row with four nasty finishes. The last time we saw the Iraqi bruiser, he was slipping past perennial contender Kai Kara-France atop UFC Vegas 75 at APEX.

Then it all fell apart.

“Before my Kai Kara-Fance fight, I was struggling with some health issues,” Albazi told reporters at the UFC Edmonton media day (watch it here). “I didn’t really know what it was, but after my fight it showed that I had something called supraventricular tachycardia (SVT). That’s the medical name for it. It’s basically irregular heart beat. My heart rate would go up to 239, so I had to do a heart surgery.”

“After the heart surgery, I kept training for the fight against Brandon Moreno in Mexico City, and then my left arm literally stopped,” Albazi continued. “I couldn’t lift my arm up, I couldn’t jab, I couldn’t do anything, but I still kept training. After I got my first MRI, the first doctor said, ‘You shouldn’t be fighting anymore. Find a 9-to-5.’ I kept going to different doctors and when the UFC doctors found out, they literally pulled me out of the fight and I had to go straight into surgery. They told me (I was) one punch away from getting paralyzed. So after that surgery, here I am. It’s the longest break of my career.”

Whether or not you think Albazi has a clear path to victory may depend on how much stock you put into his win over Kara-France. Keep in mind that 19 of 21 media outlets scored the bout for the Kiwi and outside of that performance, “The Prince” does not hold a single victory over anyone ranked in the Top 15. As for Moreno, his resume is beyond reproach, having faced a murderer’s row of flyweight killers over the last five years. His size is likely to stonewall any ground attack from Albazi and Moreno remains the harder puncher. Unless the “Assassin Baby” self destructs, this figures to be a clean sweep on the judges’ scorecards for the returning ex-champ.

Prediction: Moreno def. Albazi by decision

125 lbs.: Rose Namajunas vs. Erin Blanchfield

“Thug” Rose Namajunas
Record: 13-6 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +115
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.70 | Striking accuracy: 42%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.38 | Striking Defense: 64%
Takedown Average: 1.55 (53% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 59%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Tracy Cortez

Erin “Cold Blooded” Blanchfield
Record: 12-2 | Age: 25 | Betting line: -135
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 66” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.47 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.34 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 2.05 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 81%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Manon Fiorot

Rose Namajunas appears to have settled into her new home at flyweight after a decorated run at 115 pounds. It’s unfortunate that her lame-duck performance against Carla Esparza at UFC 274 was the catalyst for a trip north, considering there was unfinished business against current strawweight champion Zhang Weili. I doubt it would have taken more than one or two wins from “Thug” to get that rubber match rebooked; but alas, Namajunas prefers to bang it out against bigger women. After stumbling out of the gate against French phenom Manon Fiorot, the former Ultimate Fighter finalist proved she’s just as formidable at flyweight, though you could argue that her blue-collar performances against Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez — two fighters seated far down the division rankings — were unspectacular, but effective. I would expect more of the same this weekend in Edmonton, even with a potential title shot hanging in the balance.

“Anything’s possible and, yeah, that’s my intentions, to really put on a good performance, enough to where there’s no doubt that I could be next,” Namajunas told reporters at the UFC Edmonton media day (watch it here). “I just kind of feel as if Manon deserves it next anyway, regardless of what I do. She technically has a (win) over me. I do feel like, if that was a five-round fight, I think I could’ve found a way to win. I was finding it toward the end, but it is what it is.”

“If [Fiorot] wins the belt, then that would be great to fight her again or even have that dream matchup with Valentina [Shevchenko] one day,” Namajunas continued. “I’d be excited to see them fight, but if the UFC wanted to put me ahead of that with a very spectacular performance, I’d be open to that, as well.”

Erin Blanchfield, like Namajunas before her, suffered her first loss at flyweight after running into Fiorot atop the UFC Atlantic City card back in March. From an observer’s perspective, it appeared as though Blanchfield was flummoxed when her usual bag of tricks failed to yield the results she was accustomed to and as such, had no Plan B against the 125-pound “Beast.” Prior to that performance, Blanchfield was making it look easy, racking up six straight wins with three nasty finishes, beating an ex-champ and a former title challenger along the way. Despite her tenure at 125 pounds, she’ll bring no physical advantages into her contest against Namajunas, who also has years of championship experience.

“Losing always sucks and it takes a little getting over,” Blanchfield told reporters at the UFC Edmonton media day (watch it here). “I didn’t harp on it for too long. I just let my body heal from the fight and then I was back to training. Yeah, I feel like me and my coaches watched over it. We found things we wanted to improve on, my distance management and my striking and my wrestling and everything as I always do. So I kind of focused on that.”

“Honestly, it’s just a sport at the end of the day and you have to treat it like kids would,” Blanchfield continued. “You just get up and get back to training and focus on the things you need to improve on. I think I had a lot of time after that fight to do that and time to just train, not have a fight, and then finally have a fight and have a camp and feel really good. I think Manon is definitely getting the title next and I think having a really good performance Saturday, like getting a finish over Rose definitely puts me in that title picture next.”

Namajunas is the better striker and far more effective at controlling the distance inside the cage. It will be interesting to see how she deals with Blanchfield’s wrestling, especially considering “Thug’s” history with Esparza. This might be the fight where Namajunas needs to resurrect her dynamic offense from the strawweight days, as the paint-by-numbers approach against Blanchfield may sink her on the scorecards. “Cold Blooded” is still just 25 years old and not yet fighting in her competitive prime, facing a former champion who’s seen and done it all. Assuming Namajunas doesn’t take a mental coffee break, I would expect her to capture four of the five frames and coast comfortably to a decision.

Prediction: Namajunas def. Blanchfield by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Edmonton main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

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FLYWEIGHT MANIA! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Oct. 19, 2024, with an exciting Middleweight main event between two surging contenders as No. 13-ranked Anthony Hernandez ranked takes on No. 14-seeded Michel Pereira. In addition, exciting Bantamweight standouts Rob Font (No. 10) vs. Kyler Phillips (No. 11) hook ‘em up in UFC Vegas 99’s hard-hitting co-headliner.

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Edmonton fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Edmonton news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Moreno vs. Albazi” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.