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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backs Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

28 Sep 2024, 13:21 · CBS Sports

Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has thrown two interceptions in each of Denver's two losses, but he turned in a clean performance in a 26-7 win at Tampa Bay last week. He will aim for another smooth outing when he faces the Jets on the road during the Week 4 NFL schedule. The Jets have sacked quarterbacks on a league-high 16.8% of pass attempts, doing so largely with four-man pressure. Keeping the pocket clean for Nix will be critical for the Broncos, who are 7.5-point underdogs in the Week 4 NFL odds.

Denver is the second largest favorite in the Week 4 NFL spreads, as San Francisco is a 10.5-point favorite against New England. The Patriots have allowed 10 sacks in their last 10 games, but the 49ers are coming off a pair of outright losses as favorites. All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+3, 41) cover the spread versus the Falcons. The last time these two teams met was in January, when the Saints layed down a 48-17 demolition of the Falcons at home. Derek Carr threw for four touchdowns in the victory and has been even better in his second season with the Saints.

Carr is completing 68.8% of his passes through three weeks and his 9.1 yards per pass attempt leads the NFL. New Orleans blew out the Panthers and Cowboys to open the season before suffering a 15-12 loss late against the Eagles last week. The model is expecting the Saints to bounce back in a big way on Sunday, predicting they win outright 60% of the time and cover the 2.5-point spread in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-2, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. Pittsburgh's run defense slowed down Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins last week, holding him to just 44 yards on 15 attempts. They will now face Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads a rushing attack that is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt has 5.5 sacks, four tackles for loss, 15 tackles and two forced fumbles in five career games against the Colts. He had two sacks and two tackles for loss in the most recent meeting (Week 15 of last season) and is on pace to become the second-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks behind Reggie White. SportsLine's model expects Watt to be disruptive again on Sunday, one reason why the Steelers are covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.