NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loving Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024
SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations
· CBS SportsThe Patriots and 49ers have had similar starts to the NFL season, winning in Week 1 before dropping their next two. Sportsbooks, however, don't see much similarities between their levels of talent since 49ers vs. Patriots on Sunday has the largest of the Week 4 NFL spreads. The injury-ravaged Niners are 10-point favorites, making them the biggest favorite thus far this season. Other games with large Week 4 NFL lines include Chiefs vs. Chargers (+9.5) and Jets vs. Broncos (+8).
Games with large NFL Vegas spreads always attract plenty of NFL betting interest since they are relatively uncommon compared to their college football counterparts. There are 16 games to choose from in the Week 4 NFL odds. All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 4 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+1.5, 45.5) cover the spread versus the Falcons. Since the start of last season, the Falcons' 6-14 against-the-spread record is the second-worst in the NFL. Their cover percentage as a home favorite is even worse (25%) as they are only 2-6 ATS over this span in that regard, while the Saints are 3-1 as an away underdog since the beginning of last season. Additionally, New Orleans is 6-3 ATS over its last nine games at Atlanta.
While the Saints' offense was contained by Philly in Week 3, it should more closely resemble the unit that lit up the scoreboard in the first two games on Sunday versus the Falcons. Like the Panthers (27th) in Week 1, and Cowboys (32nd) in Week 2, the Falcons (26th) also have a bottom-ranked run defense, and the Saints' ground game should get a boost with the expected return of Taysom Hill, who missed Week 3. Alvin Kamara is projected to top 100 total yards as the Saints (+1.5) win outright as underdogs and cover well over 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-1.5, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. This current Pittsburgh team is reminiscent of its Steel Curtain days as the Steelers own the league's No. 1 defense in terms of both points allowed and yards allowed. They also top the league on both third downs and in the redzone, while Justin Fields is 7-2 over his last nine starts. He's also protecting the ball as he has just one turnover over his last five games.
Protecting the ball isn't something you can say about Anthony Richardson, who leads the NFL with six interceptions. Five of those have come over his last two games as he's posted a passer rating below 45 in each. Richardson has yet to compete over 50% of his passes in any game this season, despite facing just one top-10 defense so far. His inefficiency going up against the league's best defense is a bad combination for the Colts, who also rank 31st in yards allowed in 2024. The model has Pittsburgh (-1.5) covering well over 50% of the time and says the Over hits in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 4 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads
Get Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine
Thursday, Sept. 26
Sunday, Sept. 29
Saints at Falcons (-1.5, 45.5)
Bengals at Panthers (+5.5, 46.5)
Rams at Bears (-2.5, 41)
Vikings at Packers (-3, 43.5)
Steelers at Colts (+1.5, 40)
Eagles at Buccaneers (+2.5, 45)
Commanders at Cardinals (-5, 49.5)
Browns at Raiders (+1.5, 37.5)
Chiefs at Chargers (+8.5, 39.5)
Monday, Sept. 30
Seahawks at Lions (-4, 47.5)