Modi's BJP ahead in Haryana election but trails in Kashmir
· BBC NewsNeyaz Farooquee & Sharanya Hrishikesh
BBC News, Delhi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is leading in the northern state of Haryana but looks set to fall short in Indian-administered Kashmir as votes are counted in two state elections.
An opposition alliance formed by the Congress and regional party National Conference (NC) is currently ahead in Jammu and Kashmir.
These were the first state polls to be held in India since the general election, which returned the BJP to power in June with a reduced majority.
A potential win in Haryana would be a big boost for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as it would allow it to form a government for a third straight term.
A BJP win would also go completely against exit polls, which had predicted a landslide for the Congress in Haryana.
The exit polls had also indicated a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, but if trends hold, the Congress-NC coalition will be in a position to form the government.
Both states have 90 assembly seats and a party or coalition that crosses the halfway mark can form the government.
According to votes counted so far, the Congress-NC alliance is ahead in around 51 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP is ahead in 26. The BJP's count is being helped by its performance in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
These numbers may change as more votes are counted.
This was the first assembly election to be held in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019, when the federal government revoked the region's autonomy and changed it into a federally governed territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
The three-phase elections saw top leaders from the BJP and Congress make several promises, including the restoration of full statehood.
Many voters told the BBC that they hoped that the election would give them a chance to voice their concerns after having no local representatives for years.
However, many say they are sceptical about how much influence the elected government will have, since the chief minister will have to get the federally appointed lieutenant governor's approval on major decisions.
After the last election in 2014, the BJP formed a government with the People's Democratic Party (PDP). But they parted ways in June 2018 over political and ideological differences amid rising violence in the Kashmir valley. Since then, Delhi has governed the region.
The elections in 2024 were closely watched as federal officials held them up as a proof of normalcy in a region facing militancy for decades.
The region has witnessed a violent insurgency against Indian rule for more than three decades, resulting in thousands of deaths.
India blames Pakistan for fomenting the violence, a charge its neighbour denies. The countries have fought two wars over Kashmir, which both claim in full but administer only in parts.
For the first time in decades, several separatists - who advocate for Kashmir's independence from India - also took part in the elections. Smaller players and regional parties were hoping to play a crucial role in government formation after exit polls suggested a hung assembly.
In Haryana state, the governing BJP faced the major challenge of anti-incumbency after a decade of being in power.
The Congress's hopes were buoyed by anger over controversial federal farm laws – now withdrawn – and a short-term army recruitment scheme brought by the BJP.
The farm laws had sparked months of protests from farmers in Haryana and neighbouring states as protesters feared they would allow the entry of private players into agriculture.
The short-term army recruitment scheme, Agniveer, is a contentious issue in the state, which contributes a significant number of soldiers, external to the Indian army, especially at a time when India grapples with a jobs crisis.
But if the trends hold, the BJP is set to overcome these challenges to achieve a hat-trick win.