Swing-state Catholics in schism over presidential race — but see Trump as ‘lesser of two evils’

New polling of observant Catholics shows major splits among the faithful on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the best choice for the next four years.

But the GOP nominee can take heart in that most of the 1,172 Catholic voters polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the National Catholic Register believe he’s at least “the lesser of two evils.”

The phrase, often used to describe two relatively unpalatable choices, has especial relevance to Catholics, given Pope Francis framed the presidential election in those terms last month.

“One must choose the lesser of two evils. Who is the lesser of two evils? That lady or that gentleman? I don’t know. Everyone with a conscience should think on this and do it,” the pontiff proclaimed.

Thus far, Catholic cogitation on this matter is to the advantage of the former president.

Overall, 52% of respondents rate Trump as the lesser of two evils, giving him a 4-point advantage over Harris in the sample. His biggest single-state advantage on this question: a 16-point lead in Wisconsin.

He leads her in four of seven states, with North Carolina Catholics split and Nevada and Pennsylvania Catholics choosing Harris as less evil than her opponent.

Ethnic splits are the most profound on this question. 

Two-thirds of Hispanic Catholics believe Harris is the lesser of two evils, while 57% of white respondents favor Trump over the veep. 

The same dynamic is largely replicated when it comes to presidential preference.

Overall, 50% of Catholics want Trump in the White House, giving him a 5-point lead over Harris. Trump leads in five of the seven states, with his biggest advantages being a 12-point lead in Michigan and an 18-point lead in Wisconsin. 

Harris’ best state? Nevada, where Catholics prefer her 50% to 44%.

Ethnic splits are the big takeaway from this ballot question also. Harris is the overwhelming favorite of Hispanic Catholics across the seven-state sample, 67% to 28%. With white respondents, however, Trump leads 56% to 40%. And in this sample, whites outnumber Latinos by a roughly 5-to-1 ratio.

Harris is outperforming where voters say they were in the 2020 Trump-Biden race. The president lost the Catholics polled here by 9 points, and “Scranton Joe,” a Catholic, only carried his native Pennsylvania in the seven-state sample. While he took 52% of Hispanics, 55% of white Catholics voted for Trump’s re-election.

Things theoretically could change if a divine message is conferred on some of these voters between now and when they finalize their presidential pick. 

Overall, 52% of Catholic voters say they will pray before voting, whereas just 36% say they will go it alone without divine counsel. This includes 60% of North Carolina Catholics. But only a plurality of those in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania pledge to say a rosary before marking their ballots. 

Mercury Analytics conducted this survey between Oct. 3 and 8. The margin of error is +/- 2.86%.