10 considerations for the Taoiseach on date of election

Taoiseach Simon Harris has a decision to make: when to call a general election. The choice appears to be between November or February.

RTÉ's Political Correspondent Paul Cunningham examines the ten key considerations for Mr Harris.

A February election:

Abide by commitments

The Taoiseach has said that he wants this Government to go "full-term", which is interpreted as continuing until February. He has said it every day, for weeks. Any sudden deviation from the position could raise questions with voters about the Taoiseach's consistency.

If he calls a November election, he could be accused of being a chancer. Staying the course, on the other hand, solidifies the perception that he's a man who means what he says.

But does the voting public truly care about whether the Taoiseach remains firm on this commitment? It's unclear.

Demonstrate leadership

Simon Harris was elected Taoiseach by the Dáil just last April. He's been in the hot seat only for a few months and may well feel that he needs to be able to prove himself as an effective leader before going to the country.

If the coalition remains in office until the New Year, it allows the Taoiseach to demonstrate his abilities - whether that's leading the Government, engaging with his EU counterparts or participating in weighty international issues.

The flip side, however, is that he may encounter an unexpected and unsolvable problem in January which derails his carefully laid plans.

Give new candidates time

17 sitting Fine Gael TD's have announced that they're to stand down at the next general election - half of their deputies. The latest to announce they would not seek to retain their seat was Damien English.

Some in Fine Gael believe the replacement candidates, many of them councillors, need time to connect with their electorate. Going to the country in February, the logic runs, would give them just that.

It's a truism that incumbency counts under our PR electoral system, and so new candidates have to battle ferociously to secure a seat. However, a successful presidential style campaign by Simon Harris in November could give the party an electoral bounce which brings the new candidates home.

Pass key legislation

The Government has some priority legislation which it wants to get through the Oireachtas and signed by the President as quickly as possible.

The biggest piece of legislation, by far, is the Planning Bill. It's expected to clear the Oireachtas this month. There are other bills which are close to completion such as legislation on gambling and defamation.

Any bill which has not cleared the Oireachtas by the time an election is called ends up going nowhere.

Staying in office for a few more months means more legislation, which the Government deems important, is passed into law.

Ending well

When elected Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris said his first priority was to engage with the other coalition leaders.

He laid particular emphasis on cementing a relationship with the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin. The Tánaiste was forthright this week at his party's gathering in Killiney in Dublin, describing speculation of a November election as "hot air" and repeated his long-term view that an election in February would be "an ideal time".

While the decision on when to call an election is solely the prerogative of the Taoiseach, is Mr Harris prepared to put the Tánaiste's nose out of joint?

Mr Harris told RTÉ's Morning Ireland programme in Tullamore that he wanted the coalition to end well - a further indication that the three leaders would be in lockstep at the end of the Government's term in office.

Then again, if Mr Harris could get Mr Martin and Mr O'Gorman to agree to a November election, that goal of a joint approach could equally be achieved.

A November election:

Polls

Despite 13 years in government, Simon Harris has managed to give Fine Gael a new lease of life with his high-tempo... always-online... style of leadership.

Polls from both the Business Post and Irish Times suggest that Fine Gael, under Mr Harris, has opened up a lead on the other parties which is greater than the margin of error.

These polls are not just a snapshot in time but reflective of a trend. It's certainly true to say that general election campaigns matter and trends can be reversed. Yet many Fine Gael TDs believe that the party should go to the country when the going is good and there's a public receptive to their message.

Sinn Féin in trouble

The results of the Local Elections last June were not good for Sinn Féin. Leader Mary Lou McDonald described them as "disappointing" because the party only secured 12% of first preference votes. In the 2020 General Election, it had secured 25%.

Many in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil believe that they should give as little time as possible to Sinn Féin to mount a recovery. Sinn Féin is already very busy producing policy documents - housing and childcare are done; the alternative budget comes next week; and health policy sometime after that.

Many Government backbenchers, and indeed ministers, firmly believe that going sooner rather than later would be electorally advantageous.

The Big mo'

William Shakespeare once wrote: "There is a tide in the affairs of men / Which, taken at the flood, leads onto fortune; / Omitted, all the vote of their life / Is bound in shallows and in miseries."

Ministers, junior ministers and Government backbenchers have told me they believe the big mo', or big momentum, is behind them now and the Taoiseach has to take the opportunity.

They've said versions of the same thing: If I was Simon Harris, I'd head to the Phoenix Park after the Budget and be done with it. But Simon Harris has a lot to lose - both the coveted job of Taoiseach, and his reputation as a political leader, if the gamble goes horribly wrong.

That has to weigh heavily on the Taoiseach when he could remain top dog until February, and then continuing as acting Taoiseach while the next government is formed - including going to the White House on St Patrick's Day.

Past experience

Leo Varadkar was elected Taoiseach in 2017 and his popularity buoyed up the party in the opinion polls.

Many in Fine Gael felt he should have cut and run in late 2019. Instead, the election didn't happen until early 2020 and Fine Gael lost 15 seats and fell behind both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

For many in Fine Gael, they believe Mr Harris should learn from Leo's lesson and call an election. They contend Enda Kenny made the same mistake in 2015. They also despair at the idea of knocking on doors in the darkness of January when money is tight.

Given the Exchequer is awash with cash, and the Apple billions still to come, Fine Gael TDs think there'll be a good feeling with the electorate if they were to seek a new mandate in 2024 rather than hanging on until 2025 when the Budget bread will have been eaten and forgotten.

But there's a big but: if the party runs a cack-handed campaign, all bets are off.

Dictated by events

A fear among Fine Gael TDs is that staying in government until the last possible moment means that their re-election campaign could be up-ended by an unexpected event. An unknown unknown, to quote former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

There may be a snazzy Fine Gael election plan ready to be revealed, but it could be swept away by an unfavourable topic like homelessness or a political scandal or a tragedy.

Far better, the logic goes, to choose the territory on which the campaign is fought, rather than leaving it all to the mercy of the three Greek fates who control the past, present and future: Clotho, the spinner, who determines the beginning of life; Lachesis, the allotter, who assigns individual destinies; and Atropos, the inevitable, who delivers, in this case, political death.