Irish-based US voters prepare to cast ballot in election

Patti Shields is busy, on a mission and slightly out-of-breath at Clontarf promenade in Dublin. Her next stop is across the River Liffey.

"I'm driving down to Monkstown to help another older lady who doesn't have a computer. We're going to sit down. We're going to get her voter registration in," she said.

With less than seven weeks to go until November's US election, the Chair of Democrats Abroad Ireland is clambering to get Americans in Ireland ready to vote.

One of her most recent efforts involved facetiming a Virginia voter in a nursing home in Limerick to get her on the list.

"Votes from abroad were the difference for Joe Biden in the states of Arizona and Georgia in 2020. We don’t want to wake up the day after the election and know that there were votes that could be cast that didn’t make it," Ms Shields said.

Around three million Americans abroad are eligible to cast a ballot in this election and roughly 30,000 of them live in Ireland.

Their votes could make a difference in swing states that will probably decide whether Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump becomes president.

"Back in 2020, the number of votes that really decided this election was less than 50,000 spread across just three states. We are likely to have that same kind of election and if 15,000 more overseas voters participate that could decide the election," Rob Richie, co-founder of Fair Vote, a non-profit organisation that researches and advocates for election reform, told RTÉ News.

Both parties are doing everything to seek advantage, including more efforts to rally support abroad.

"This election is too important to sit on the sidelines," former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a video message to Americans overseas on social media.

Republicans admit that they are taking a page out of the democrats' book, by trying to engage more with potential voters outside of the United States.

"Both parties have realised that because it’s so close, that just scrambling for a few more votes from overseas voters is going to be meaningful. Republicans have finally embraced that mail-in voting is a reality now," said Chair of Republican Overseas UK Greg Swenson.

Mr Swenson said that the plan for GOP supporters is to target six countries which have the most American expats, including Canada, the UK, Israel and Germany.

"There’s a big military presence here in the UK as well as in Germany. We’re really aiming at the military bases. They typically vote 80% or higher for Republicans" said Mr Swenson.

"We’re probably not going to be focusing on precincts that lean very left. I’m not knocking on doors is Islington here in London or in Dublin. We have to go where we can get likely republican voters. Historically, like California (outside the US is), not a great place to find republican votes but a great place to raise money," he said.

And there is big money being raised.

Republicans Overseas UK had the largest-ever fundraiser outside of the United States in June, collecting over $2 million (€1.8 million) for Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee.

The logistics and maths of United States elections are unusual from an international perspective.

Each state, and the District of Columbia, have their own vote for president rather than a country-wide popular vote.

Whoever gets the most votes in a state wins, what’s called, electoral votes.

With 538 electoral college votes divided between 50 states and the District of Columbia, a presidential candidate needs 270 of them to win the White House.

"If you’re hopelessly behind or comfortably ahead in a state neither candidate focuses on that state" said Rob Richie from Fair Vote.

"We’re down to seven states being in play and really within that pool three or four states that everyone knows that’s going to be the decisive ones. So trying to match up an overseas voter with a swing state is a big enterprise" Mr Richie said.

Pennsylvania votes are key as US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump remain deadlocked in the state.

With 19 electoral votes up for grabs, the state has sided with the winner of the past two elections.

Losing the state would make it very difficult for either Ms Harris or Mr Trump to collect enough electoral votes to secure the prize on Pennsylvania Avenue and that’s why both candidates and their surrogates, have been regular visitors to the Keystone State.

One of those prized Pennsylvania voters living in Ireland, Amy Govern, told RTÉ News that she is casting her ballot for Kamala Harris.

But the division in this election is not lost on her or those around her.

"Pennsylvania is very contentious. The state, even in little districts - it can be half and half. You neighbour could be on one side, your other neighbour could be on the other side" she said.

"Personally I have friends and family that don't support what I support and you have trouble having conversations. So it's really important that everyone in our state, especially in our district, votes" she added.

For Patti Shields, she is on the home stretch as election day gets closer.

The next couple of weeks will see Democrats Abroad Ireland hold voter drives for the 1,500 American students in Ireland who are in universities like UCD and Trinity College Dublin.

"You know every election someone says 'oh this is the most important election of our lifetime’ but I think in this case, it really is," Ms Shields said as she prepared to go and tick off another voter from her list in Monkstown.