Could Sinn Féin's woes 'nudge' Govt to November election?

The last thing any party needs as the General Election starting line finally comes into view is a political scandal.

One is an issue. Two is a problem. Three is a crisis. And four? Well, you get the idea.

But with a General Election looming and a potential 29 November date now firmly sign-posted in the democratic roadmap, that is exactly what Sinn Féin is grappling with.

And while the individual issues are serious and extend far beyond mere political strategy, inside Leinster House strategy is what is on everyone's minds.

In the past fortnight Ireland's main opposition party has been rocked by four separate crises that have tarnished Sinn Féin's image.

In normal circumstances, a good political strategist could help resolve the issue with a little bit of time, while a confident and in control leader could eventually steer the party back on course.

But with the General Election fast approaching, time is a luxury Sinn Féin may no longer have.

And while Mary Lou McDonald was once seen as the party's nearly untouchable leader, recent months and the past week have led to some whispered questions over whether this is still the case.

All are issues which Sinn Féin will need to address quickly, as the engines are revved for the now imminent General Election.

What happened this week?

The matters that emerged in recent days are of course serious. No party disputes this, including Sinn Féin.

Instead, it is the level of transparency around what happened, and what actions were and were not taken when the problems first emerged, that is in dispute.

On Saturday evening Brian Stanley - the public accounts committee chair, who has also been Sinn Féin's TD for Laois-Offaly for more than a decade and a party member for 40 years - announced he was resigning from Sinn Féin to become an Independent TD.

The surprise from journalists to the completely unexpected news was quickly followed by shock, as Deputy Stanley's statement alleged "a type of kangaroo court" had been set up to examine a serious complaint made against him, an allegation he rejects and has countered with an allegation of his own.

The following morning, Sinn Féin added to the controversy by rejecting Deputy Stanley's version of events, before taking issue with the reference to "kangaroo court" by insisting its now former TD had been given access to legal representatives throughout an internal inquiry, the file on which had now been referred to - if not yet investigated by - gardaí.

While the exact nature of the complaint and the response to it have not been made public, the existence of an internal Sinn Féin inquiry - and calls from Sinn Féin for Deputy Stanley to reveal the nature of the complaint himself - led to significant media and political focus.

On RTÉ Radio's Morning Ireland programme on Monday, party leader Mary Lou McDonald sought to quell growing concern by providing information on the timeline of events and some details of what the inquiry involved - the names of which party officials led it were left out - before defending its existence and arguing this was good practice.

However, the explanation did not stop more questions from Government and rival parties, which insisted on further clarity in the Dáil the following day, with Taoiseach Simon Harris saying at a pre-Cabinet media interview that the "drip feed" release of information needed to end.

On Tuesday, Mary Lou McDonald sought to do just that, again telling the Dáil that an unspecified complaint had been made against Deputy Stanley, that he refuted the claim, and that Sinn Féin had set up an internal inquiry to examine what happened before ultimately handing the matter to gardaí months later.

But during this statement more new information emerged, with Mary Lou McDonald also addressing the separate and unrelated second issue involving texts from former party senator Niall Ó Donnghaile to a 17-year-old party member - an issue Sinn Féin was aware of before Mr Ó Donnghaile's sudden resignation, officially on "health grounds", last December.

Mary Lou McDonald's explanation for not revealing the issue at the time of Mr Ó Donnghaile's resignation, or that Mr Ó Donnghaile was the person referenced in recent newspaper reports on the issue, was, she said, out of concern for Mr Ó Donnghaile's mental health.

Again, Government and rival parties took aim at Sinn Féin, with the Taoiseach Simon Harris alleging the public had been "duped" by the opposition party and Tánaiste Micheál Martin questioning the lack of transparency.

And, they were quick to point out, the issues followed separate recent revelations two Sinn Féin officials gave former Stormont press officer Michael McMonagle references after he left in 2022 while under investigation for child sex offences he has now been found guilty of, and the unrelated resignation just a week ago of Kildare South TD Patricia Ryan over disputed claims of internal censorship based on Facebook posts.

While in all four separate and unrelated cases Sinn Féin has insisted it followed its own procedures and took appropriate action, when necessary. However, for the Government and rival opposition parties this simply doesn't wash.

Due to the seriousness of the issues, Government has stressed that questions over a lack of transparency are legitimate, while Sinn Féin has argued that although the cases are serious the scale of at least some of the response has been in part due to the closeness of the General Election.

Regardless of which point of view is accurate, though, all sides accept that a difficult picture has now been painted of a party that lacks transparency, is facing significant individual controversies and is holding internal inquiries - an image that could risk damaging Sinn Féin's electoral reach.

What does it mean for Sinn Féin’s election prospects?

How all of this ultimately plays out in the General Election itself remains to be seen.

It should not be forgotten of course that while elections often begin with one issue on everyone's minds, competing narratives can quickly take over once the campaign is officially up and running.

The 2020 general election was a case in point, with the months leading up to it dominated by Brexit and a threatened no confidence motion in then health minister Simon Harris, before pensions, housing and commemoration controversies soon took hold.

Sinn Féin will no doubt be hoping a similar scenario occurs if the General Election is held in the coming weeks, helping to push its recent controversies to the back of voter's minds in the same way as the Leinster House bike shelter and security office and children's hospital scandals have, for now at least, fallen out of the headlines.

However, while individual issues do have a habit of grabbing the spotlight in the build-up to a General Election before retreating into the shadows when the campaign properly kicks off, it is not quite the same when it comes to a wider perception of a party itself.

And it is this issue Sinn Féin sources fear, and Government sources hope, could be the overall result of the past week's revelations.

Throughout the past week, Government and in particular Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been keen to portray the recent controversies as evidence of a murkiness in Sinn Féin's internal practices, with both the Taoiseach and Tánaiste saying in separate media interviews that they do not believe Sinn Féin is fit for Government.

That is a portrayal that is nothing new for the two main Government parties, which have long sought to frame attacks on Sinn Féin in this way when issues arise.

However, while previously the argument had made little inroads among the key demographic of younger voters when rival parties linked the concern around Sinn Féin to the Troubles and legacy issues, of which younger voters have no direct personal experience, the recent Sinn Féin scandals are different as they are happening in the here and now.

The Niall Ó Donnghaile case involved inappropriate messages to a teenager. The Brian Stanley case involved a complaint examined by an internal inquiry rather than gardaí until it became public. The references for former Stormont press officer Michael McMonagle related to child protection issues. And the Patricia Ryan case, while different again, related to strongly disputed claims of censorship.

In other words, much more present and tangible issues for a new generation of voters, many of whom voted for Sinn Féin in 2020 due to an expectation the party was more open minded and forward thinking than its rivals.

Although Sinn Féin insists this is a clear attempt at opportunism from Government and some sections of the media, a view its supporters have put forward on social media in recent days, party sources privately accept that the problems of recent days will do little to help the party gain votes, for a second reason too.

Due to the focus this week on Sinn Féin's difficulties, the party has out of necessity been on the defensive rather than on the attack.

And while its public accounts committee chair nominee Mairéad Farrell TD did attempt to swing debate back towards what the party does want to talk about - housing and Government overspending - for now at least those legitimate wider societal issues are being drowned out by a quartet of problems of the opposition party's own making.

What does it mean for the leader?

Given the closeness of the General Election, parties will be watching closely to see to what degree the past week has registered with voters when the latest opinion poll is published this weekend.

And not just for party versus party reasons, but also in terms of how the public perceive how Mary Lou McDonald has handled the situations.

In the 2020 general election, much was made by Sinn Féin supporters of how they believed Mary Lou McDonald represented a viable fresh alternative to Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin.

That successful tactic continued post-election on social media, and repeated opinion polls in the first half of the Dáil term suggested Sinn Féin was far and away the most popular party in the country, with Mary Lou McDonald comfortably the country's most popular leader.

More recent opinion polls, though, suggest those times are gone, with support for Sinn Féin generally and Mary Lou McDonald individually falling as the General Election has neared.

In June 2022, the Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes poll suggested that Mary Lou McDonald was the most popular party leader in the country with a satisfaction rating of 52%.

By this time last year, the same poll suggested her satisfaction rating had fallen to 46%. And now? That rate is consistently in the 30s - a figure that while far from disastrous is also nowhere near what it once was.

If this apparent drop is due to the party being targeted by right wing and populist candidates on immigration and other matters, the response to date to the change in Fine Gael leader, or what was perceived as a poor return in the local elections compared to its polls high-point is up for debate.

But there has in recent months been quiet murmurings and whispers within Sinn Féin about whether the party could itself be due for a leadership change, an issue not helped by this week.

For now, the official perception among Sinn Féin members is that Mary Lou McDonald has handled the issues of recent days appropriately, responded firmly to criticism from Government and provided as much transparency as possible.

But it is not a universally held position, with much attention likely to be paid to this weekend's latest opinion poll and whether in due course the public will take a similar view.

Bottom line: the election

Ultimately, of course, it always comes back to the election.

While other issues such as the passing of legislation including the finance bill are the key factors in when the campaign officially begins, no politician around Leinster House - or, to be more accurate, politicians suddenly spending more time in their constituencies - will be under any illusions that events of recent days have most likely accelerated when the date is finally called.

For Government, the recent revelations around Sinn Féin mean its biggest political rival is in difficulty and is unable, for now, to focus its lines of attack on housing, health and cost of living issues.

Could it be the factor to give the coalition that final nudge towards a November election?

And while Sinn Féin will hope it has weathered at least some of the storm of recent days, party sources also acknowledge the past week has been the last thing it needed as the election and the fate of all parties looms.