Climate policies will raise temperatures by 3.1C - UN

Continuation of current policies on the climate crisis will lead to a "catastrophic temperature rise" of up to 3.1C by the end of this century, according to the latest 'Emissions Gap' report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

Although it is still "technically possible" to meet the internationally agreed upon target of global warming of no more than 1.5C, this can only happen with massive global mobilisation to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, led by the world's richest countries.

In 2023, the G20 which represents the world's wealthiest countries, including the European Union, were responsible for 77% of global emissions.

UNEP said that current commitments by nations to cut their emissions by 2030 are not being met and even if they were, that would still lead to global warming of between 2.6C - 2.8C.

Global emissions need to be cut by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035 to reach the 1.5C goal.

Hannah Daly, Professor in Sustainable Energy and Energy Systems Modelling in UCC said: "To keep our climate safe, governments need to double down on their commitments to cut emissions.

"We are on a path to a temperature rise that is nearly twice the level scientists say is safe for the planet.

"Failing to act quickly not only puts our climate at risk, threatening the foundations of our society, but also squanders the opportunity to make our energy, transport and food systems cleaner and fairer."

UNEP's Emissions Gap report 2024: No More Hot Air ...Please! says that a warming of between 2.6C and 3.1C would result in "debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.

António Guterres, UN Secretary General, said the emissions gap report makes it clear "We're playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time."

"Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap."

Mr Guterres urged the world to use the upcoming COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan to set the stage for stronger Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which are due to be finalised ahead of next year's COP in Brazil.

Mr Guterres said: "There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.

"Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods."

The European Union submits one NDC for the entire bloc.

On Wednesday, the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) warned that Ireland's rate of progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions was not enough to meet national and EU targets.

The direct cost of failing to meet those targets could exceed €8 billion in 2030.

The Chair of the CCAC, Marie Donnelly, said: "We have the opportunity, now, to transform our society to a modern, climate resilient, biodiversity rich, environmentally sustainable and climate neutral economy or else pay the price of not meeting our commitments which will take crucial funds away from essential services.

"It is better to make the investments now for households, communities and businesses, rather than paying a large fine in a few years."

According to the latest emissions report from the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland's emissions reduced by 2.2% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period last year.

Last year, the EPA found that Ireland’s emissions reduced to their lowest levels in 30 years with a reduction of 6.8%.

In 2024 and 2025, emissions need to reduce by 8.3% for Ireland to meet its first carbon budget.

Prof Daly added: "We know what needs to be done and we have the solutions necessary to make transformative changes, but action is far too slow.

"More than pledges, we urgently need to put measures in place to actually deliver rapid emissions cuts and to support people across society to make changes and protect them from disruption."