Game On: Expect the unexpected in Election 2024

Elections in Ireland used to be predictable affairs - usually a battle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to lead the next government.

But all that changed after the financial crash of 2008, and since then each general election has brought about big shifts in the political landscape.

Voters have become far less consistent in their choices and far more likely than in previous eras to change their mind, not just between elections, but during campaigns themselves.

Election 2024 comes at a time of disruption in politics everywhere.

While it may seem that there has not been such upheaval here, it does follow a period when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael served in a historical first coalition together, and the fortunes of the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, has ebbed and flowed dramatically.

Here are some of the features to watch out for over the coming weeks:

The Trump threat

From the outset, the Government parties will want to keep the focus on the economy.

An explosion of corporate taxes - mostly from US multinationals - has given Ireland some of the healthiest public finances in Europe - and (partly) enabled an opportunistic and timely pre-election Budget giveaway.

But the election of Donald Trump in the US - on the eve of the election here - means this economic model, and the windfall that comes with it, is not guaranteed into the future. And so the message from the Government parties is: now is not the time to be taking risks by changing horse.

Taking his last Leaders' Questions of this Dáil term, on the day after the Trump victory, Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris warned that the looming "risk of a transatlantic trade shock is rising".

Luckily, then, he argued, his administration has put aside billions of euro to protect the Irish economy from such a shock.

"I look forward to debating this Government’s record on managing our economy and the public purse versus Sinn Féin’s policy on spending it all and leaving nothing for the buffer times."

The cost of living

Is sticking to the economic message likely to work? In 2020 Fine Gael sought to mobilise electoral support around its capacity to steer the country through the turbulent waters of Brexit.

Voters, it would soon find out, were unreceptive to this narrative - and it barely featured as an issue.

Similarly, in 2016, its campaign slogan 'Keep the Recovery Going' backfired after many voters asked: What recovery?

Could it be the case that once again the bigger, or macro, economic picture will not have as much resonance with voters as the micro-economic picture?

How people felt they were doing, despite a healthy economy, was a driver of voter behaviour in the US, with one commenting that they had to pay $9 for a tube of toothpaste.

Could the cost of daily basics and the more tangible worries around the cost of living here have a far greater impact on how people cast their ballot, than concerns around international trade policies?

The banana skins

Housing and health will no doubt be at the top of voter concerns.

In her last contribution of this Dáil term, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns accused the Government of turning the housing crisis into a housing disaster, adding she hopes the electorate will be "wary in the General Election of political parties with a track record of broken political promises."

But there are other issues emerging in political discourse that will feature strongly in the campaign. The impact of the Trump presidency on the war in Ukraine is likely to result in more investment in defence and security will be needed across Europe, including Ireland. Meaning the future of Ireland's neutrality will be debated.

Something that is being felt more viscerally, and is being raised on the doors, is the war in Gaza.

Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has been keen to highlight progress on the Occupied Territories Bill - although it will have to wait until the next Dáil to be passed. And while the Government parties will argue that Ireland is regarded as being very strong on this internationally, the opposition parties have been critical saying they are strong on words but not deeds.

Another issue that will be pushed by Sinn Féin in particular, is the waste of public money. The last election was prompted because of a no confidence motion in Simon Harris over the spiralling cost of the National Children's Hospital. That was in 2020 and five years later it is still an issue, and the hospital is still not built.

Immigration

Ireland is unique in that immigration has not been a major feature of campaigns in the past, and there has never had a significant far-right party. But since the last election, with the arrival of 100,000 refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine joining record numbers of international protection applicants, it is now on the agenda.

Just how much of an issue it will be during this campaign remains to be seen. That may well depend on events or controversies that emerge.

The Government has moved its position on immigration in response to public disquiet. But when mixed with local concerns around a lack of services including GPs and school places, this could be tricky territory for the coalition parties.

If the issue does features strongly, it will not suit Sinn Féin either. The party's attempt to adopt a centre-ground approach on migration served to simultaneously alienate both supporters who had previously been drawn to the party because of its nationalism and anti-establishment credentials, and more progressive supporters who preferred an inclusive approach.

Sinn Féin’s hopes

This will not be the only tricky area for the main opposition party.

The rise of Sinn Féin was the story of the last general election campaign. It won the popular vote but did not field enough candidates to win the most seats. After what has been the worst possible run into this campaign - with controversies around child protection and internal investigations - the party is now trying to assert a more confident outlook than recent opinion polls would suggest.

In a sign of its growing hope is that in recent days it has been adding candidates to election tickets. There will be three Sinn Féin candidates running in the constituencies of Louth, Cavan-Monaghan and Kerry.

While their rise was unexpected in the last election, this time Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are better prepared for Sinn Féin. But with strong tickets in some areas, the party will be able to hold many seats while making gains in some places. If the debate comes down to wastage of public money or housing, there are many punches that Sinn Féin can land on the Government parties yet.

Fianna Fáil versus Fine Gael - the same but different

One place Mary Lou McDonald will feel comfortable will be in an RTÉ studio for a leader’s debate. She will relish being up against Micheál Martin and Simon Harris who she will no doubt cast as two sides on the one coin.

So just how will the leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael manage to debate each other, and ensure it is not just them against Sinn Féin? That is a question that is puzzling many of their candidates and outgoing TDs.

Both parties will need to distinguish themselves from each other, while at the same time defending their shared record in Government for the past four years.

One way of doing this is by focusing on the style of their leaders: Simon Harris will portray himself as the energetic "new" leader. Micheál Martin will present himself as the more sensible statesman, more concerned with governing than in campaigning. We have seen this emphasis happening already.

Distinguishing themselves on policy grounds will be harder. Fianna Fáil is likely to focus on how it would do things differently in justice, while Fine Gael will want to show it is more trustworthy with the economy. But there is a risk in criticising each other and that is something that will soften the cough of each party.

Beyond the election, there is likely to be a further evolution of the relationship between the two. Whereas once Irish politics was defined by their difference, now their continued cohesion is story of Irish politics After a confidence and supply agreement, would another term in government together ultimately lead to a merger between the two?

Constituencies redrawn

It was described as the biggest ever shake-up of constituency boundaries in the history of the Dáil. Last year, the electoral body, An Coimisúin Toghcháin, recommended changes that have resulted in the number of TDs being increased by 14, from 160 to 174, and the number of constancies increasing by five from 39 to 43. This will make the next Dáil the biggest ever.

This has inevitably left some winners and some losers.

While some TDs have calculated that it is not worth contesting their seats, others will be left in a scenario where even their own canvassers cannot work for them.

The redrawn constituencies are a big talking point in Tipperary which has been split, with some parts of Kilkenny brought into Tipperary North. This will take a lot of getting used to for voters and candidates - some of whom complain that even their own canvassing teams won't be able to vote for them.

Gender quotas

Electoral politics in Ireland has been a predominantly male realm, with just 131 women elected to the Dáil in the past 100 years. This is the first General Election where a gender quota of 40% will apply. Parties who do not reach this threshold will be penalised financially.

Fianna Fáil has a 43% female ticket, Fine Gael has 41% and Sinn Féin has 44% while just 26% of independent candidates are women.

But will this finally lead to a breakthrough for female representation?

The evidence from the 2020 election - where a 30% quota applied - is mixed. That resulted in a 7% rise in the number of women in the Dáil - although a number of high-profile women lost their seats. The National Women's Council would argue that quotas alone are not enough and that other measures such as family friendly work practices in politics are needed.

Celebrity candidates

Speaking of women in politics, Máire Geoghegan-Quinn - who in 1979 became the first female Cabinet minister in 60 years, has been on the campaign trail in Galway West with Gráinne Seoige, with an Instagram reel of her interviewing the Fianna Fáil candidate about "how difficult and challenging it has been as a woman going for politics."

Ms Seoige replies that while we have got past wondering if men can make a cup of tea, she gets a lot of questions about "why do you think you are qualified" and being seen as "a picture rather than what is going on in here" - pointing to her head.

Although she has been keen to highlight that she has a degree in politics and a previous career in current affairs, it seems by her own admission she cannot shake the celebrity candidate label.

She is not the only one. Fianna Fáil has selected former TV presenter Alison Comyn to contest a seat in Louth. She argues she is far from a celebrity and has been a journalist working locally for many years.

Micheál Martin no doubt believed it was a coup to recruit these two women. But will their star quality be a help or a hindrance?

The last-minute voter

In the past, political scientists viewed campaigns as being "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing," as Dr Kevin Cunningham has analysed here before.

But, as party loyalty and attachment receded, campaigns everywhere are beginning to signify an awful lot.

For example, in 2020 almost a half of voters made their decision during the course of the campaign. In this year’s European elections almost a third of voters made up their mind in the final 24 hours of the campaign.

This all means that this election will be won and lost over the next 21 days. Expect the unexpected.