Signs Point to Imminent Ground Offensive in Lebanon

In Lebanon, signs continue pointing towards an imminent Israeli ground operation.

On Monday morning, the Israel Defense Forces struck for the first time one of Beirut’s Sunni neighborhoods hitting an apartment block where three senior figures from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine were meeting. The PFLP cooperates with Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to finance and arm Palestinian terror cells in Shechem (Nablus).

A separate airstrike eliminated Fateh Sherif, commander of Hamas forces in Lebanon who was also the principal of a UNRWA school in Tyre.

At the same time, Israel is isolating Lebanon from the air. According to Lebanese reports, Israel ordered Iraqi planes not to fly to Beirut and ordered an Iranian plane to turn back.

In addition, Israel is also attacking the land crossings between Lebanon and Syria. At the Jdeidet Yabous border crossing, the most widely used crossing between Syria and the Beqaa Valley, the person in charge of facilitating the passage of Hezbollah operatives was apparently killed. Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Iran from rearming Hezbollah.

Tensions in Lebanon are rising even after Western officials sent messages to Lebanon that Israel is preparing for ground action.

Visiting soldiers along Israel’s northern border, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was briefed by commanders on readiness for a ground operation.

“The elimination of Nasrallah is a very important step, but it is not the final one. We will employ all the capabilities at our disposal, and if someone on the other side did not understand what those capabilities entail, we mean all capabilities,” Gallant said.

He added, ““Our goal is to ensure the [safe] return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes. We are prepared to make every effort necessary to accomplish this mission. We will use all the means that may be required – your forces, other forces, from the air, from the sea, and on land.”

After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, the Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing rockets and launching drones at northern Israel communities, killing 49 people. According to figures released by the government on Sept. 29, more than 68,000 residents of northern Israel are displaced from their homes. Hezbollah leaders have repeatedly said they would continue the attacks to prevent Israelis from returning to their homes.

Israel’s war goals include securely returning northern residents to their homes.

Israeli officials demand that Hezbollah to be disarmed and removed from southern Lebanon in compliance with UN Security Council resolution 1701 which ended the Second Lebanon War of 2006. This includes all areas south of the Litani River such as the cities of Nabatieh and Tyre, as well as the Beqaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.

Analysts recently described to The Press Service of Israel two scenarios that could play out: a limited invasion taking Israeli soldiers up to the Litani, and a wider invasion reaching Beirut to further incapacitate Hezbollah. Most of the analysts agreed that it would take anywhere from three weeks to three months for Israel to create a security zone in Lebanon to enable northern residents to return home.

The crisis escalated on Sept. 17 when thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah operatives blew up. The following day, the terror group’s walkie-talkies and other devices exploded, killing at least 37 people and injuring an estimated 3,000. Israel never formally claimed responsibility for the sabotage. On Sept. 19, Israel escalated its airstrikes on Hezbollah assets.

With their communications in disarray, Hezbollah commanders gathered to plan their response, enabling Israel to eliminate numerous senior figures. One notable airstrike in Beirut on Sept. 21 wiped out nearly the entire chain of command of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force as they discussed carrying out a plan to invade the Galilee.

On Sept. 27, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah along with another 20 senior Hezbollah figures in a bunker in Beirut’s Dahieh district, a Shi’ite and Hezbollah stronghold.

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