US Election 2024: Kamala Harris' likely pathways to securing Democrat victory

Kamala Harris is hoping a strong ground game and the backing of female voters can push her toward the magic 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure the White House

Vice President Kamala Harris has changed her party's fortunes in the polls after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and there are several reasons why the Democrats should feel bullish about their chances.

Ms Harris reignited energy into the Democratic campaign after a gloomy spell when Mr Biden's incoherent debate performance against Republican Donald Trump led many in the party to express concerns about his fitness for office. After announcing her intention to run as the Democrat's candidate and securing the nomination, huge amounts of funding have poured into the party's war chest.

Numerous national polls have put the Vice President ahead of Mr Trump and she remains the frontrunner even if the former president has closed the gap. Despite the economy being the leading factor for voters this election cycle, Ms Harris' campaign has been boosted by abortion rights being a top concern among female voters who have outpaced their male counterparts in early ballot casting.

A strong debate performance against Mr Trump on September 10, saw the Harris campaign continue to build momentum ahead of the November 5 presidential election. While the Democrats are widely predicted to win the popular vote - the most number of cast ballots - Ms Harris can take solace in having several pathways to securing the electoral college.

The electoral college, where states are awarded a number of points based on how many Representatives or senators they have, places huge importance on a small number of battleground states in the race for the White House. While the Republicans would need to make inroads into states that voted Democrat in 2020, Ms Harris needs to secure the Blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to claim the 270 electoral college points that will secure victory - should other typically Democrat states hold firm.

Here are the key factors that could point to a victory for Ms Harris.

Female voters

Since Ms Harris secured the Democrat nomination, women have been galvanised to engage in the election in a way they simply were not under President Biden. Her campaign appears to have resonated with many women who were concerned following the overturning of Roe. v Wade, which guaranteed abortion access across the US and put the issues to the states instead.

While it is unknown how many votes have been cast for the Democrats in the early voting stage of the election, there are positive signs for Ms Harris. Early voting trends point to women outpacing men with the exception of a couple of battleground states.

Dr Rob Mellen Jr, assistant professor of political science at the University of South Florida told The Mirror: "The positive signs for Harris is that women seem to be highly motivated to vote and they make up 53 per cent of the electorate. She is doing 16 points better than Trump among women.

"She is also doing better with disaffected Republicans. The big question, of course, is whether that will remain true in the seven states that matter most. If women stick with her in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she will be in a good position to win."

Abortion issues

Shockwaves were sent throughout the US in June 2022 when the right-wing majority Supreme Court overturned Roe. v Wade. While evangelical Christians celebrated the move, many women across the nation were motivated to vote to preserve the right across states and back pro-choice candidates.

Samantha Karlin, founder of Empower Global and host of the "Samanthropolitics" podcast that focuses on politics from a feminist lens said abortion could be a major factor for women voting for Ms Harris. When asked whether it could have a significant impact she told The Mirror: "Yes, yes, yes."

"The overturning of Roe v. Wade hit families - not only women, but families, as most women who need abortions already have children (Six in 10 women who have abortions are already mothers, and half of them have two or more children) - in a way that illustrated you can't separate politics from your personal life and your health. For those who may not have voted in the past, the political has become frighteningly personal.

"In 2023 alone, at least 171,000 women had to travel across state lines to get abortions. In addition, we have seen horrifying reports of women dying from not being able to access reproductive care."

Democrat's huge election war chest

The Democrats were flooded with cash after Ms Harris entered the race to the White House. The Democrats have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into advertising in key battleground states in hope that it will give them the edge over Mr Trump.

According to Forbes, the Democrats outraised the Republicans by three to one in the last pre-election report. The Harris campaign raised $97.2 million (£74.8 million) in the first half of October while Trump's campaign raised $16.2 million (£12.4 million) comparison.

Democrat's effective ground game

With the influx of cash, the Harris campaign has been able to mobilise a strong effort on the ground to get people out to vote. The traditional style of campaigning appears to be working well for Ms Harris is the battleground state of Pennsylvania where Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting.

Nicholas Higgins, associate professor and department chair of the political science department at North Greenvile University told The Mirror: "Voter turnout is critical, and the best way to do that is to talk to people frequently and urge them to the polls. There are a lot of consultants who have methods to try and do this, and being able to hire them, pay for voter lists, and hire door knockers. Harris will probably be feeling confident in her ground game and ability to try and turn out voters."

Trump's unfavorability

While Mr Trump pulled off a shock win in 2016, he has became a love-him-or-hate-him figure in the US. This undoubtedly resonates with his base but his rhetoric has turned off many would-be voters as well.

Aggregate polling on FiveThirtyEight shows 52.1 per cent of Americans an unfavourable view of the former president compared to 43.6 per cent who like him. Many candidates viewed as being conspiratorialist or 2020 election deniers who were endorsed by Mr Trump were rejected by the electorate in the 2022 Midterms.

This factored in with his inflammatory rhetoric around various groups, immigrants in Ohio, has continued to spark a backlash among many. His choice to select Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate did nothing to boost his likeability outside his base with the author turned politician having the lowest approval ratings of the Vice Presidential candidates in the race.

Strong messaging

The Harris campaign has painted the Vice President as a clear contrast to Mr Trump with positive messaging about the country's future. Ms Harris also has shown more discipline to stay on message throughout the campaign compared to her Republican counterpart.

In contrast, Mr Trump's vision for America during an event at New York's Madison Square Garden was drowned out by controversial statements made by comedian Tony Hinchliffe who called Puerto Rico - a US territory - an island of "garbage." The Trump campaign distanced itself from the comment but the damage done was evident with Puerto Rican artist Nicky Jam, who campaigned with Mr Trump, pulling his endorsement of the former president.