The seven US election 2024 battleground states that will decide the next president
by Fionnula Hainey · Manchester Evening NewsVoters in the United States will decide who will become the next president today.
In what is looking likely to be one of the tightest contests of recent years, Joe Biden's vice president Kamala Harris will go head to head with her Republican opponent Donald Trump. The election is expected to be decided by razor-thin margins, meaning that it could take days for the results to be declared.
This year, there are seven states that have been targeted by the candidates as key battlegrounds to win over. In each of them, the vote has been too close to call during the campaign.
READ MORE: What time will we know the full results of the US election in UK?
In order to win the election, a candidate needs to secure at least 270 of the total 538 electoral college votes. Going into polling day, pollsters predicted that Ms Harris was narrowly in the lead with a prediction of 240 electoral votes, while Trump was projected to take 218. A further 80 remained uncertain, according to the YouGov poll.
In US presidential elections, the number of electoral votes for each state is determined by population. In all but two states, the winner of the popular vote takes all of the electoral college votes, meaning the states with a higher number of electoral college votes are often the most-sought after and get heavily targeted during the campaign trail.
Here are the seven states that are the ones to watch - and will likely decide the result of the 2024 US presidential election.
Pennsylvania
Ms Harris and Mr Trump both spent time during their final day of the campaign trail in the eastern state of Pennsylvania. The state is the ultimate prize in the battle of the swing states as it holds a total of 19 electoral college votes.
In Pennsylvania, the price of groceries has risen faster than in any other state, according to market intelligence provider Datasembly, making the cost of living a key issue for voters.
For Mr Trump, it is where he survived his first assassination attempt of the campaign, when he was shot in the ear during a rally in Butler in July.
(Image: AP)
The former president won Pennsylvania in 2016, but the state narrowly flipped to Joe Biden in 2020. This year, it remains on a knife’s edge, with the latest polling putting both candidates at 48 per cent.
The results in Pennsylvania - the fifth most populous state in the US - may not be known for a few days due to the high volume of early and postal votes that need to be counted. As of the last census, around 13 million people lived in the state.
Michigan
Michigan has picked the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections.
Like Pennsylvania, Michigan, worth 15 electoral college votes, was part of a 'blue wall' of states that voted Democrat at every presidential election between 1992 and 2012.
In 2016, when Mr Trump took the state, his majority was small at just 0.2 percentage points but it symbolised the scale of his success in wooing working-class voters away from Hillary Clinton. Previously, Mr Obama had carried a nine percentage point lead over the Republicans.
In 2020, Mr Biden won the state back, with a lead of nearly three points. However, this year opinion polls suggest the contest could be much closer.
For voters in the upper Midwest state, the war in Gaza is of particular importance. Because of its sizable Arab-American population, Michigan has become the epicentre of activism against the current government's stance on the conflict.
Arizona
In the last election, Mr Biden narrowly beat Mr Trump, becoming the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996. Mr Trump had previously beaten Ms Clinton in the state by more than three percentage points.
Arizona is worth 11 votes on the electoral college.
Because of its geographic location, sharing a border with Mexico for several hundred miles, the swing state has become the centre of the debate around immigration, with Mr Trump repeatedly criticising the current government's record.
It is also one of the states where voters will be having their say on abortion laws after the state introduced a ban following the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022.
North Carolina
North Carolina, worth 16 votes in the electoral college, was won by Mr Trump in 2020 with 49.9 per cent of the vote compared to Mr Biden's 48.6 per cent.
It was last won by a Democrat candidate in 2008 when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win in the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This year, opinion polls point to a very close contest.
Polls in North Carolina are some of the first to close so it is the swing state most likely to report prompt results on election night. The results could give an early indication of how both Ms Harris and Mr Trump are faring.
Georgia
Like North Carolina, the southern state of Georgia gives its winner 16 electoral votes and opinion polls here, as elsewhere, point to another incredibly close contest.
As is the case with other states, the economy is a major issue for voters in Georgia.
Mr Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. The result was so close that a recount was conducted, with the outcome not confirmed until more than two weeks after election day. In the end, just 0.3 percentage points separated Mr Biden from Mr Trump.
At the previous election, Mr Trump won the state by more than five percentage points.
Nevada
Nevada has been won by the Democrats at every presidential election since 1992, but often by close margins – and this year, it could be closer than ever, with polls suggesting the race is effectively tied.
Mr Biden won the state, which has sizeable Latino population, in 2020 by just over two percentage points.
Nevada does not offer a huge number of electoral votes – just six – but in a close contest, a victory here could be decisive in helping either Ms Harris or Mr Trump get to the White House.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin was won by the Democrats every year since 1988 before Mr Trump narrowly won the seat for the Republicans in 2016. The state switched back by another narrow margin in 2020, and could go either way this year.
Mr Trump previously picked out Wisconsin as one of his key targets, saying "if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing".
Wisconsin provides its winner with 10 electoral votes in total and it last voted for a losing candidate in 2004.
As is the case with other swing states, the result in Wisconsin might not be clear for several days, thanks to the volume of postal and early votes that will need to be sorted and counted.