​Rein in the darkness: On a second term for Donald Trump

Americans will have to reckon with the consequences of putting Trump back in office 

Republican and former U.S. President Donald Trump is set to win a second term in office after a strong showing in the 2024 election, a race that saw Democrat and current Vice-President Kamala Harris go down fighting after she entered the fray at a late stage and faced tough odds all the way. His likely win represents many firsts: at 78, he will be the second oldest person ever thus elected; he will be the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years; he may be only the second President to serve non-consecutive terms in 132 years; and he would certainly be the first two-time President to also have been impeached twice by Congress. Despite these facts, Mr. Trump prevailed by winning in swing States and achieving a small swing across almost all States in favour of the Republican Party — thus gaining the keys to the electoral college and the popular vote, even if final counting and the formal call for each State is yet to be completed. While Democrats unsurprisingly held on to their stronghold States, most of which are situated on either coast, there appeared to be a “red shift” underway across the political system. This was seen in Republicans succeeding in seizing control of the Senate — especially through critical seats won in Ohio and West Virginia — and likely retaining the chair in the House of Representatives. If this pans out, the second Trump administration will benefit from a trifecta of the executive and two branches of the legislature and potentially have far-reaching political power that could dramatically shape domestic and foreign policy in line with the 47th President’s vision.

There could not have been more at stake in this consequential election — for the two major parties, for the American people, and for the world. Domestically, voters appeared to lash out against Ms. Harris for her association with an administration that did some serious policy heavy lifting towards the U.S.’s post-pandemic economic renaissance, yet apparently failed to bring price levels of everyday goods down sufficiently. In parallel, Mr. Trump has continued, ever since demitting office under the cloud of inciting insurrection in January 2021, to issue dire statements about migrants and asylum seekers stealing U.S. jobs, once again appealing to the financial heartstrings of the blue-collar workers, as he did in his 2016 election campaign. This polarising tactic of whipping up fear of the “other” in a society that, in its ideal form as envisioned by its forefathers, would welcome and harness the power of immigrant workers of all hues, appears to have combined with disenchantment over stubbornly high price levels to end Ms. Harris’s presidential run. Beyond the bread-and-butter issues, though, lies a deeper churning in the collective psyche of the American voter, one that has bestowed Mr. Trump with a profound second victory — the potentially irreversible death of not just of political correctness but also of fundamental political principles. Mr. Trump faces four criminal indictments, the most serious of which relate to his role in spurring a violent mob attack on the Capitol buildings in early 2021, the culmination of his democracy-threatening strategy of denying the 2020 election results. How did his supporters find it so easy to look past that? Is there not irrefutable evidence in the Georgia case against him of his attempts to tamper with official proceedings and lean on State election officials to misrepresent the outcome of the election? Does not the fact that he is a convicted felon awaiting sentencing in the Stormy Daniels case link him to criminal acts under law, rather than represent a “witch hunt” by dispirited liberals?

If the electorate has answered these questions with its vote, then that can only mean one thing — that his supporters explicitly condone their leader’s chosen courses of action and that may include — however grey the legal logic might be for it — his eventual issue of a self-pardon or assumption of immunity from prosecution for all culpable acts, official or otherwise. He will also likely continue the trend of his first term in office of pardoning his close allies accused of a variety of crimes and use the punitive power of the state’s machinery to go after the media and individual journalists who might irk him — as indeed his campaign team has already revoked the credentials of a senior political correspondent who apparently commented on internal anxiety over early voting numbers in Pennsylvania.

America will have no choice but to deal with the consequences of its voting decisions in 2024, but what might it mean for the world? In the economic sphere, tariffs are likely to be back in play, not only the 50%-60% rates that Mr. Trump has promised on goods from China but also a tariff of close to 20% on all U.S. imports, which could again risk triggering an all-out global trade war. For India it might raise the spectre of his labels of New Delhi as a “tariff king” and “trade abuser” including in the context of the controversy over Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In the strategic space, Ukraine may be forced to accept unpalatable concessions towards finding a truce with Russia, and in Gaza and with Iran, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu may relish the prospect of a laissez-faire attitude by the State Department. Under Trump 2.0, the Hindu nationalist project in India might continue apace with the confidence that no blowback would emanate from Washington on human rights and minority rights concerns.

While the “MAGA movement” has most certainly seen a powerful revival in the outcome of the 2024 election, the rules-based international order founded on the bedrock of universal rights and liberal values is far from dead. When the personality cult of Mr. Trump ebbs in 2028, there will have to be a reckoning.

Published - November 07, 2024 12:20 am IST