General Election 2024: It's go time, so what can we expect?

LAST UPDATE | 2 hrs ago

AFTER MONTHS OF speculation, Taoiseach, Simon Harris, has given us the election date. It seems an opportune time and most people are ready to get this done.

Suitably warmed up from the celebrity sideshow of banal nothingness that is US politics, we are going to be treated to a proper election campaign. I say that of course with apologies to all my political friends who seem interested in that American stuff. For years, they tell me how they love it, but I see nothing in it.

A US campaign where their own parties destroy the candidates in the selection process, where nobody really meets the candidates, where it’s all about money raised and media clips and nobody understands anyway seems a bit dull to me. Not to mention that in the United States, they seem unable to find two decent candidates to run.

So, the grown-ups can get back to business now as we turn to face our own election. This is going to be a somewhat strange one. The timing seems right for Fine Gael, but it’s not like it’s amazing timing, more the best that might be hoped for.

Back in 2011, the Irish people decided to unravel a century of political construction completely. We are still working our way through what comes after that. It is hard to say if it will be any clearer after this election is done but another step will have been taken at least.

Potential winners and losers

Fine Gael will go into this bounding in confidence. You can expect high energy from Simon Harris and the firm message that in a world gone mad, best to stick to what we know. The gurus will give us, responsible, strong and controlled Simon, with a little dash of fun here and there. But it’s not really in the leader’s stakes that this is won and lost. There are some harsh realities on the ground. We do not face one election but a different election in every single constituency, all tentatively pulled together by whatever zeitgeist sucks up the eternally undecided.

There are some realities. For all the strength FG appear to have, it is about how stable their vote is. There is no swing so far. FG for most of its existence has lived in polls between 20-25%. They are still there. Their best feature is that during the financial crisis and after it in government their base never left them.

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They will come back in that region again and on a good day will hope that if a swing comes to them, they might go higher for this election. But their aim will be to get some form of the current coalition back in power.

Harris knows Michéal Martin has nowhere to go. FF will desperately try to create that difference with FG, but Michéal Martin is in a cul de sac where he cannot form an alternative government because he has shut the door on Sinn Féin. FF could only get that coalition in place with a new leader.

Fianna Fáil is still strong in many constituencies if only a shadow of its former self. However, on the ground, they will believe they can close the gap to FG and win seats that national polls won’t show. Yes, social media will play a part, yes campaign ads and slogans will have their role. But the hard yards will still be put in by organisations on the ground and in your community. We are still more likely to be influenced by friends and family than anything else. So, it is essential for parties to insert themselves into your friend groups and get repeatable messages passing from one person to the next.

Fianna Fáil is the party that is still in flux. Its vote is half of what it used to be, and it still has no real vision for where the party is going. However, it does still have a reputation on the ground for keeping it local.

Some of its vote has gone to Sinn Féin. Now, this is probably the most interesting party in the election. It’s terrible timing for them. Back before the locals, Sinn Féin’s high polling was halted. Largely due to the fact that the party has had a meteoric rise and is struggling with understanding its base now. It is unclear in far too many areas. It supports environmental protection, but not where that might have a tough message for change or rules. It supports immigration, but not if that is awkward in some communities.

More recently, Sinn Féin has begun to have trust issues too. Mary Lou McDonald proved to be an excellent leader on the front foot in 2020. But recently has appeared afraid to lead. Trying to see what the party wants or what people might like, rather than being comfortable enough in her position to force the party and others to follow. This will be a test. However, if they can find a definitive and brave policy, SF could yet make a comeback. Without it though, they will suffer. They may need to amputate some of their new base.

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Which way will voters lean?

We will see great sideshow battles as Labour and the Social Democrats fight for supremacy in their long journey to what we all know is an eventual merger. What one has, the other lacks and both occupy a broadly similar space.

With the Greens, we are told to expect a wipe out. Again. That too may be premature. There is no doubt it will be a difficult election for them, but there was a pattern in local elections where it was not as bad as feared. The environment is still a major concern especially in urban areas and with clever prioritisation the Greens might save some seats on transfers as people may desert them in their number 1 vote but might return to them later down the ballot.

It seems though according to polls we are quite undecided. Thankfully there is little sign yet of us all going crazy and voting for some of the wilder fringes… but we are tempted at times.

Remember I spoke of that lost Fianna Fáil vote? Most of it is still wandering about looking for a home. And when you are undecided, it’s easier to trust one person than a party, so Independents tend to suck it up. How big this group is will decide a lot in the next government. However, while this group has given us some brilliant individuals, it also gives us many who keep most of their policies unclear. Who jump on a local issue or talk up a particular policy with no fear of ever being responsible for delivery. We should all really take a wider look than that and seek the independents who have a broad and fully formed policy basis, as they may yet be in government.

So, enjoy the posters, don’t moan about it. Enjoy the house calls, the street meets, the handshakes, the banter and the flyers. It’s all part of our wonderful and very deeply personal process. This time around, politicians are, for the first time in my memory, genuinely afraid for their safety. That is a tragic thing that I hope we can dispel over the coming weeks as we welcome our opportunity to be heard.

One final thing perhaps. Challenge yourself as a voter. Don’t fall for the comforting lie over the inconvenient truth. Try to ask “Am I voting for something I just want to hear or am I voting for the person who is actually being honest?”. It’s not easy, but give it ago.

Johnny Fallon is a political commentator, author and voice of ‘The Johnny Fallon Podcast’.

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