Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied Across 7 Battlegrounds—And Pennsylvania’s A Tossup (Updated)

31 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with Harris leading voters in all seven states by just one point and maintaining a slight edge in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump leads narrowly in the Southeast and Arizona—but must-win Pennsylvania is essentially a tossup.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll out Thursday, a statistical tie—but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to shift.

North Carolina: Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points), an outlier among several other polls this week that show Trump ahead, including a Fox News survey that shows him up 49%-47% (or 50%-49% with no third parties), while he leads 50%-48% in surveys released in the last week by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.2-point advantage.

Georgia: Trump holds a 48%-47% edge in the Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he’s up by a more substantial 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s Bloomberg poll, though they are tied at 49% in a Marist poll (margin of error 3.9), and a Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer—the candidates are tied at 48% in Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday, and it’s 49%-49% in a CBS/YouGov poll, and while Trump is up 47%-46% in a Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris holds a 49%-48% lead in a large Cooperative Election Study survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that shows him up 47%-45%, though three other surveys this week show Harris with an edge, including the Fox News poll that found her up 48%-46% (though there’s a tie at 49% with no third parties), 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in the CNN/SSRS poll—while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up by 1.1 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson survey and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in the CES survey (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out Oct. 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is up 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll out this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

1.4 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied Across 7 Battlegrounds—And Pennsylvania’s A Tossup (Updated)

Topline

Key Facts

Big Number

Key Background

Further Reading