Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Sun Belt, Harris Leads Up North—And Pennsylvania’s Razor-Thin (Latest Update)

30 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tied, with multiple new polls showing Harris with an edge in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump leads in the Southeast and Arizona—meaning the race will come down to Pennsylvania, which is essentially a tossup.

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in some swing states.Getty Images

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer—the candidates are tied at 48% in Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday, and while Trump is up 47%-46% in a Quinnipiac survey and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris holds a 49%-48% lead in a large Cooperative Election Study poll backed by a group of universities (3,685 respondents). Trump leads Harris by 0.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris leads 48%-46% in a Fox News poll (though there’s a tie at 49% with no third parties), and Harris is up 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in the CNN/SSRS poll, while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up by 0.9 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump leads Harris 49%-47% according to Fox News (or 50%-49% with no third parties), and he’s up 50%-48% in surveys released in the last week by CES, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.1-point advantage.

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson survey and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in the CES survey (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out Oct. 23 (margin of error 5). The two candidates are tied in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll out this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Georgia: Trump holds a 51%-46% lead over Harris in the CES survey (2,663 respondents), reflecting his edge in most polls, though they are tied at 49% in a Marist poll (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads by a narrower 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3), while a Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

1.4 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Sun Belt, Harris Leads Up North—And Pennsylvania’s Razor-Thin (Latest Update)

Topline

Key Facts

Big Number

Key Background

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