Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Tightens Race In These Two Harris Strongholds

28 Sep 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Donald Trump has narrowed the presidential race against Kamala Harris in two Democratic strongholds—Wisconsin and Michigan—according to New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday, as the campaigns move closer to Election Day with no clear leader in the places likely to decide the election.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump during a campaign rally at the Mosack Group warehouse on ... [+] September 25, 2024 in Mint Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Michigan: Harris holds an only 1-point advantage over Trump in the Times poll (48% to 47%). A Thursday poll by Bloomberg/Morning Consult have her a 3-point advantage (50% to 47%), while an Emerson/Pollara poll shows both with 50% here.

Wisconsin: Harris is up two points (49% to 47%) in Wisconsin, according to the Times. She led 51% to 48%, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult.

Pennsylvania: Harris is up five points here (51% to 46%) according to a Thursday Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of likely voters, while an Emerson College/Pollara Strategic Insights poll released a day earlier showed them tied. Harris led in two of four surveys out Sept. 19: by four points (50% to 46%) in a New York Times/Siena College survey, and by one point (48% to 47%) in a Washington Post poll of registered voters, while a Marist poll of likely voters shows them tied at 49% and an Emerson College likely voter poll shows Trump up by one point (48% to 47%).

Arizona: Harris leads by three points (50% to 47%), Bloomberg/Morning Consult found, Trump and Harris both have 50% support in the Emerson/Pollara poll. Trump led by one point in a Thursday Marist poll of likely voters (50% to 49%) and by five points in a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday.

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied here at 49% in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, with Harris up by one point (51% to 49%) in the Emerson/Pollara poll. She led by four points (49% to 45%) in both the Marist poll released Thursday and in the New York Times/Siena survey.

Nevada: The Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey shows Harris up by seven points (52% to 45%), and they’re tied at 50% in the Emerson/Pollara poll. They were tied at 48% in the Sept. 19 Emerson poll.

North Carolina: Harris leads by two points (50% to 48%) in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, and she and Trump are tied at 48% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Friday and at 50% in the Emerson/Pollara survey. The were tied at 49% in the latest Marist poll.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.7 points.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.