Robinhood Launches Presidential Election Betting Market Allowing Users To Wager On Harris And Trump

28 Oct 2024 by Derek Saul · Forbes

Topline

Retail investing platform Robinhood debuted a program Monday enabling users to put money on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, entering a growing market which heavily favors former President Donald Trump next month.

Robinhood users can get up to a $5,000 payout if they choose the winning candidate.Getty Images

Key Facts

Robinhood announced U.S. citizens will be able to buy derivative contracts betting on whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will prevail on Election Day, contracts which are priced between $0.02 and $0.99 at close to the market-implied percentage odds of victory for each candidate, earning a $1 payout if the user correctly chooses the next president.

Users can buy a maximum of 5,000 election contracts, company spokesperson Christina Trejo told Forbes, meaning Robinhood users can score up to a $5,000 payout if they pick the winning side.

The hours of operation for Robinhood’s presidential election betting market will slowly ramp up heading into next Tuesday’s election, with trading open 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. EDT the next two days before going almost continuously from Sunday through Friday, Nov. 8.

The contracts will pay out Jan. 7-8, 2025.

Key Background

Robinhood is perhaps the most recognizable firm to launch election betting, joining the likes of prediction market companies Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Election betting has become a major talking point this presidential election, earning a shoutout from Trump earlier this month, though the regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission has expressed concerns the wagers may “threaten election integrity” as voters may be wrongly incentivized to support a certain candidate due to their bets, though a federal court recently ruled against the CFTC in a case against Kalshi. Unlike Kalshi, PredictIt and Robinhood, the blockchain-based Polymarket operates offshore, only taking bets from non-U.S. residents. That means it does not have the relatively low limits on individual users, and one French national has almost $30 million riding on a Trump victory on Polymarket.

Big Number

62%. That’s the odds of a Trump win priced in across major betting markets, according to the site Election Betting Odds. That’s higher than the poll-based prediction models like FiveThirtyEight’s, which gives Trump a 54% chance at victory, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which prices Trump at 52.9%.

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