Tim Walz-JD Vance Polls: Walz Remains More Popular Than Vance Ahead Of Next Week’s Debate
by Molly Bohannon · ForbesTopline
Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have each been thrust into the spotlight as the running mate picks of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and a new poll released Tuesday shows registered voters hold Walz in higher regard than Vance heading into their vice presidential debate.
Key Facts
An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released late Tuesday showed more people find Vance unfavorable than Walz, with 32% of respondents saying they have an unfavorable opinion of Walz and 57% saying the same about Vance.
The poll—which was conducted Sept. 12-16 among 1,771 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3.4 points—also found Walz is more well liked across party lines than Vance: 11% of Republican voters had a favorable opinion of Walz while just 4% of Democratic voters had a favorable opinion of Vance.
The latest poll reinforces past polls in which Walz performed better than Vance: A USA Today and Suffolk University poll released earlier in the month found 48% of likely voters found Walz favorable and 36% found him unfavorable, compared to 37% who found Vance favorable and 49% who found him unfavorable (the poll was conducted from Aug. 25-28 and had a margin of error of ±3.1 points).
Polling from AP and NORC taken Aug. 8-12 among 986 registered voters showed 39% found Walz favorable and 28% found him unfavorable, while 29% found Vance favorable and 48% found him unfavorable.
News Peg
The candidates will face off in their first, and likely only, vice presidential debate next Tuesday on CBS. Heading into the debate, both candidates remain relatively unknown, with 25% of registered voters in the September AP poll saying they don’t know enough about Walz and 21% saying the same about Vance.
What To Watch For
How the numbers continue to shift as Walz becomes more of a household name. Before getting the nod from Trump, Vance was a fairly well-known senator, whereas Walz was somewhat lower-profile—though his popularity has continued to rise since he was tagged to be Harris’ second-in-command.
Key Background
In the past, experts have been skeptical of whether vice presidential picks have much influence on an election’s outcome, but with November's race expected to be highly contested, even small boosts from vice presidential picks could be game changers. In the latest FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had virtually erased the growing lead Trump had on President Joe Biden and is now ahead by nearly three points. Both campaigns have cast their vice presidential picks as politicians who can speak to voters in key midwestern swing states, though Vance is also seen as a Trump loyalist and an appeal to his MAGA base, and some parts of the Democratic base pushed for Walz due to his support for some progressive priorities. Joel Goldstein, professor emeritus at Saint Louis University and an expert on vice presidencies, recently told Minnesota Public Radio that while most people are going to vote on their perception of the presidential candidates, the vice presidential picks provide insight into how they make decisions, which can help voters decide who to support. Running mates can also make differences in their home states, Goldstein said—though in this case, both Minnesota and Ohio are unlikely to be key swing states.
Forbes Valuation
We estimate Vance is worth about $10 million, while Walz has an estimated net worth of just north of $1 million. Vance has made his money on his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” along with real estate investments that we estimate total about $4 million. Walz, on the other hand, owns no property, stocks or bonds and his wealth is based on his and his wife’s pensions for their work in teaching and government.