Hamas leader Sinwar’s death may be a turning point for the war in Gaza

Hailing the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a video statement released Thursday night, Binyamin Netanyahu said the “elimination” of one of the masterminds of the October 7, 2023 attacks did not yet spell the end of the war for the people of Gaza.

“It’s the beginning of the end,” said the Israeli prime minister.

US President Joe Biden meanwhile said he hoped Sinwar’s killing would help secure a truce he has long called for, but been unable to achieve. 

"Now is the time to move on ... toward a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden said Thursday from Germany.

The violent demise of the once-powerful Hamas leader on Wednesday revived hopes for an end to the war that has killed more than 42,000 Gazans while the whereabouts of 101 Israeli hostages captured last October remains unknown.

Many observers say that while immediate peace is elusive, Sinwar’s elimination could provide off-ramps for both Hamas and the Israeli government.

The death of a militant

For more than a year, as Israel sought its most-wanted man, several politicians repeated the allegation that Sinwar was using the hostages as human shields deep in the vast underground network of tunnels that Hamas had spent years building.

Drone footage released by the IDF shows a solitary and seriously wounded man trying to weakly swat away a drone filming him. The man was Sinwar. His body was found in the rubble after the Israelis destroyed the part of the building where he and the other militants had taken cover.

The circumstances of Sinwar’s death are “indicative of how difficult it has been for him to ... maintain leadership over the disparate cells of Hamas,” Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told FRANCE 24’s “The Debate” show.

“We know that Hamas today is severely weakened,” he said.

Watch moreDeath of Yahya Sinwar: A turning point for the war in Gaza?

Seizing the moment

Some observers believe that while the killing represents a blow to Hamas leadership, the organisation will overcome the loss.

“Hamas is stronger than the sum of its leaders. It is not only a military organisation but also a body which penetrates all ways of life in Gaza and elsewhere,” said Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli military officer.

Yet seeing images of their leader lying amid the rubble could incentivise Hamas fighters to give up the battle. Israel could, “seize the opportunity ... with offers of amnesty and incentives, financial and others, to the remaining fighters,” Alkhatib said.

Gershon Baskin, one of the negotiators who helped secure the 2011 release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, agrees.

Israel should, “exploit the moment and drop flyers over Gaza saying they would be given free passage out of Gaza and a pocket full of money,” he said.

A ceasefire in the wake of Sinwar’s death will also depend on the Palestinian militants, Baskin added.

“It depends on how smart Hamas is. They could indicate they want a deal. It involves them handing over the hostages but also giving up the leadership of Gaza,” he said.

The window of opportunity for both sides will be closing.

The chance for a ceasefire also depends on the US being able to pressure Israel, according to Baskin.

Yet Israel’s biggest ally is facing a looming presidential election. And whether the next president will be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be a huge game-changer for the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

(With AFP and Reuters)