Trump wins North Carolina, Republicans take Senate; Harris’ path to victory narrows

Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in the battleground state of North Carolina in Tuesday's US presidential election, Edison Research projected, moving him one step closer to completing an improbable political comeback.

The outcome remained uncertain in six other states expected to determine the winner.

Trump was showing strength across broad swathes of the country. He had won 230 Electoral College votes to Harris' 169 on Wednesday morning. A candidate needs a total of at least 270 votes in the state-by-state Electoral College to claim the presidency.

Decision Desk HQ projected Trump would also win Georgia. That would leave Harris with a narrow path to victory through the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though she was behind in all three states.

Republicans won a US Senate majority after flipping Democratic seats in West Virginia and Ohio. Neither party appeared to have an edge in the fight for control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a narrow majority.

Trump picked up more support from Hispanics, traditionally Democratic voters, and among lower-income households that have keenly felt the sting of price rises since the last presidential election in 2020, according to exit polls from Edison.

Trump won 45% of Hispanic voters nationwide, trailing Harris with 53% but up 13 percentage points from 2020.

Voters whose top issue was the economy voted overwhelmingly for Trump, specially if they felt they were worse off financially than they were four years ago.

About 31% of voters said the economy was their top issue, and they voted for Trump by a 79%-to-20% margin, according to exit polls. About 45% of voters across the country said their family's financial situation was worse off today than four years ago, and they favoured Trump 80% to 17% for Harris.

Global investors were increasingly pricing in a Trump win late on Tuesday. US stock futures and the dollar pushed higher, while Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose — all flagged by analysts and investors as trades that favour a Trump victory.

“Our county-by-county analysis in key states suggests Harris is lagging vs 2020, and on this basis it is logical the market is starting to price a Trump win, as seen in bonds and the dollar,” said Jens Nordvig, CEO at analytical firm Exante.

TRUMP OUTPERFORMS 2020

Trump was earning a bigger share of the vote than he did four years ago in nearly every corner of the country, from suburban Georgia to rural Pennsylvania.

Late on Tuesday night officials had nearly completed their count of ballots in more than 1,200 counties — about a third of the country — and Trump's share was up about 2 percentage points compared to 2020, reflecting a broad if not specially deep shift in Americans' support for the president they ousted four years ago. He had improved his numbers in suburban counties, rural regions and some large cities that are historically bastions of Democratic support.

In Florida, a ballot measure that would have guaranteed abortion rights failed to reach the 60% threshold needed to pass, according to Edison, leaving a six-week ban in place. Nine other states have abortion-related measures on the ballot.

Nearly three-quarters of voters said American democracy is under threat, according to the exit polls, underscoring the depth of polarisation in a nation where divisions have grown starker during a fiercely competitive race.

If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'm gonna be the first one to acknowledge itRepublican Donald Trump

Trump employed increasingly apocalyptic rhetoric while stoking unfounded fears that the election system cannot be trusted. Harris warned that a second Trump term would threaten the underpinnings of American democracy.

Hours before polls closed, Trump claimed on his Truth Social site without evidence that there was “a lot of talk about massive cheating” in Philadelphia, echoing his false claims in 2020 that fraud had occurred in large, Democratic-dominated cities. In a subsequent post, he also asserted there was fraud in Detroit.

“I don't respond to nonsense,” Detroit city clerk Janice Winfrey told Reuters.

A Philadelphia city commissioner, Seth Bluestein, replied on X: “There is absolutely no truth to this allegation.”

'AM I GOING TO WIN?'

Trump, whose supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6 2021 after he claimed the 2020 election was rigged, voted earlier near his home in Palm Beach, Florida.

“If I lose an election, if it's a fair election, I'm gonna be the first one to acknowledge it,” Trump told reporters.

Millions of Americans waited in orderly lines to cast ballots, with only sporadic disruptions reported across a handful of states, including several non-credible bomb threats the FBI said appeared to originate from Russian email domains.

Trump was watching the results at his Mar-a-Lago club before speaking to supporters at a nearby convention centre, according to sources familiar with the planning. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a prominent Trump backer, said he would watch the results at Mar-a-Lago with Trump.

The former US president attended a morning meeting about turnout but appeared bored by the data talk, according to one source briefed on the meeting. All Trump wanted to know, the source said, was: “Am I going to win?”

Harris, who had previously mailed her ballot to her home state of California, spent some of Tuesday in radio interviews encouraging listeners to vote. Later she was due to address students at Howard University, a historically black college in Washington where she was an undergraduate.

“To go back tonight to Howard University, my beloved alma mater, and be able to hopefully recognise this day for what it is, is really full circle for me,” Harris said in a radio interview.

Tuesday's vote capped a dizzying race churned by unprecedented events, including two assassination attempts against Trump, President Joe Biden's surprise withdrawal and Harris' rapid rise.

No matter who wins, history will be made.

Harris, 60, the first female vice president, would become the first woman, black woman and South Asian American to win the presidency. Trump, 78, the only president to be impeached twice and the first former president to be criminally convicted, would also become the first president to win non-consecutive terms in more than a century.

Reuters