Tunisia: Young people's anger mounts ahead of election

Amid a growing crackdown on the political opposition, young people have started taking to the streets. Could the protest gain enough momentum to impact Tunisia's third presidential election since the 2011 uprising?

Ahead of Tunisia's presidential election on October 6, May Abidi, a student in her twenties, can't contain her anger any longer.

She decided to join the first rally by the newly formed coalition of civil society groups and political parties — The Tunisian Network for the Defense of Rights and Freedoms — whose aim is to draw attention to what they fear is a surge of authoritarianism by Tunisia's incumbent President Kais Saied.

It turned out to be the largest demonstration in years, with thousands of mainly young Tunisians taking to the streets in Tunisia's capital Tunis.

"We all came to demand an electoral feast of democracy like we had in 2019," Abidi told DW during the rally last Friday.

Back then, people had called for a change after some nine cabinets had failed to tackle the country's economic problems, unemployment and corruption.

In the country's second presidential election in 2019 — the first had followed the 2011 uprising that had toppled long-term autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — the former law professor and politically independent candidate Kais Saied won with a majority of 72% of the votes.

He had promised to tackle corruption, reform the country and provide a better future for young people.

However, five years into his rule, the scorn of the young people is now increasingly turning against the 66-year-old president.

"Most of the young people who voted for Kais Saied in 2019 are extremely disappointed by now," Abidi said.

"They elected a man who said that he believed in the youth, but he ultimately puts the youth in prison," the student said.

Tunisia's crackdown on dissent

Two years after Saied was elected, he set out to consolidate his power. Since July 2021, Saied has dismantled most of the country's democratic bodies, and has jailed journalists, lawyers and political opponents.

Human rights organizations have condemned the ongoing crackdown which is seen as his instrument to secure a second term in the upcoming elections.

For example, of the 17 candidates who had announced to run for office, 14 contenders have been either excluded or detained.

Ultimately, Tunisia's electoral authority admitted only two candidates to challenge Saied.

However, on Wednesday, a court in the northwestern city of Jendouba handed one of these confirmed runners, the 43-year-old Ayachi Zammel, head of the opposition Azimoun party, a 20-month prison term for charges related to forging voter endorsements.

According to Zammel's lawyer, the accusations are baseless.

He also said that Zammel, who is the youngest candidate, will still run for presidency. "Nothing can put an end to his candidacy apart from death," the lawyer told the news agency Reuters.

Tunisia's largest opposition party Ennahda said last week that more than 90 of its members were arrested.

In a statement, Ennahda called the arrests "an unprecedented campaign of raids and violations of the most basic rights guaranteed by law."

Migration as an exit option

In light of the increasingly repressive political climate and the country's ailing economic situation with a current unemployment rate of 39% among young people, Wassim Hamadi, a young political activist, is not surprised that young people are considering leaving the country.

"The situation is deteriorating sharply, it is dominated by fear and intimidation," he told DW at the rally in Tunis.

Tunisia has long been one of the most frequented departure points for migrants en route to Europe. However, it is not only aspiring migrants from sub-Saharan countries who try to cross to nearby Italy's Lampedusa island.

According to the latest weekly snapshot by the United Nations Refugee Agency, the percentage of Tunisians who arrived in Italy between January and July 2024 rose to 13% from 8% in the same period in 2023.

However, due to a deal between Tunisia and the EU, overall arrival numbers dropped this year by 66% in comparison to 2023.

Still, the latest comprehensive survey by Arab Barometer, the most influential research network on public opinions in the Middle East and North Africa, stated in August that the desire to leave Tunisia is the highest ever recorded: 46% of those surveyed said that they are thinking of leaving the country.

"Tunisian youth are concerned above all by the economic situation and corruption," Michael Robbins, director of Arab Barometer, told DW.

"Among those who say it is the economy, the greatest concerns are inflation and lack of jobs," he added.

Meanwhile, young people are also significantly less likely to believe that the government is cracking down on corruption than older generations, leading to additional frustrations, Robbins said.

Are the protests in Tunisia gaining momentum?

At this stage, it's unclear whether the demonstrations will gain a similar powerful momentum as they did in 2011 and 2019.

The Tunisian Network for the Defense of Rights and Freedoms has now also announced a date for the next demonstration: Sunday, September 22.

Meanwhile, Romdhane Ben Amor, spokesperson of the non-governmental human rights organization, the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES), points out that the entire electoral process could be in question due to a neglected ruling by the administrative court.

In late August, the country's legally binding entity over electoral candidacy disputes had reinstated three additional candidates who were ignored by the country's Independent Electoral Commission for Elections.

Ben Amor thinks that the upcoming election and the expected outcome with Kais Saied as the old and new president could be challenged not only by demonstrating Tunisians, but also in court.

"It is possible that the court will invalidate all procedures related to the elections after October 6," he told DW.

Tarak Guizani contributed to this report.

Edited by: Rob Mudge