Opinion: Bangladesh key parties oppose President's ouster amid renewed violence

On Tuesday, student groups gheraod the Bangabhawan -- the residence of the President -- but were stopped by security forces from breaching the barricade. Similar protests a few months back led to the ouster of Bangladesh's longest-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

In Short

• BNP and Awami League oppose President Mohammed Shahabuddin's removal
• Protests erupt demanding Shahabuddin's resignation amid political turmoil
• Army's role crucial as President seeks support to maintain power

Already sailing through the choppy waters, leading political parties of Dhaka, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Awami League, have opposed plans to remove President Mohammed Shahabuddin "Chuppu" as student groups once again took to the streets demanding his resignation.

On Tuesday, they gheraoed the Bangabhawan -- the residence of the President -- but were stopped by security forces from breaching the barricade. Similar protests a few months back led to the ouster of Bangladesh's longest-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

BNP OPPOSES MOVE

The BNP, which has ruled the country several times, has said the President's removal could cause "a serious constitutional vacuum", which is unwelcome. "The constitutional vacuum resulting from the President's removal would only delay the restoration of democracy and help fascist forces who have undermined the rule of law," said the BNP's standing committee member Salahuddin Ahmed.

"The post of President is a constitutional one, the highest institution in the country. If a vacancy is created through a sudden resignation, it would lead to a constitutional vacuum and a state crisis. The nation cannot afford a delay in the transition to democracy hindered by such a crisis," he told the media in Dhaka.

AWAMI LEAGUE CHALLENGES LEGALITY

The Awami League has also opposed plans to remove the President and has challenged the legality of the interim government.

"There is no provision in the Constitution for an interim government. Our government was legally established through elections, and it has been unlawfully brought down. Now there is a conspiracy to oust the President. The illegal interim government has no right to oust a legally elected President," said Awami League spokesperson Selim Mahmud, who, like many others of his party, is in hiding.

While the BNP fears that a "constitutional vacuum" following the ouster of the President may be exploited by the Awami League, the latter sees the President as the only check against the interim government, which has been on a persecution spree against its supporters, nailing them with hundreds of cases and arrests.

Many of the Awami supporters have also been allegedly murdered since Hasina's ouster.

Meanwhile, electing a new President is also not a possibility if Mohammed Shahabuddin "Chuppu" is forced to resign through violent street protests as Parliament has been dissolved. In Bangladesh, a President is indirectly elected by Members of Parliament.

The student groups launched their agitation early this week to bring down the President after the law adviser of the interim government, Professor Asif Nazrul, accused him of "lying" about Sheikh Hasina's resignation.

Nazrul, a law professor of Dhaka University, has been widely seen as the mastermind of the student agitation that turned into a mass upsurge leading to Hasina's ouster. Immediately after Nazrul's fusillade against the President, the student groups started mobilising for fresh protests.

The movement against Chuppu was triggered when he recently said he could not find any resignation letter from Hasina. This was challenged by Nazrul who said Chuppu testified to her resignation after Hasina fled to India on August 5.

The resistance against Chuppu is also fuelled by the fact that he is viewed as the last vestige of the Awami League regime by the student groups, other opposition parties and Islamist organisations .

Sources said the President is looking up to the Army for support to hang on even as reports have been circulating in Dhaka on the plans and strategies of leading figures in the interim government to oust him.

If assured of support from the Army, the President has the option to declare an emergency and go for a fresh council of advisers instead of retaining the present set headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

The interim government has handed over "magistracy powers" to the Army to help it handle law and order, because the police as an institution is clearly down and out.

ARMY CLEARLY EMERGES AS KEY PLAYER

Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman and Chief of General Staff (CGS) Lieutenant General Mizanur Rahman Shamim are out of the country at the moment. As Zaman was away on a tour of the US and Canada, the command of the Army was left with Shamim until his return late on Thursday.

However, Shamim left for Turkey early on Wednesday with a delegation of senior officers to attend THE SAHA Expo 2024 International Defence and Aerospace Exhibition to be held in Istanbul, Turkey, from October 22 to 26.

In Shamim's absence, a recently promoted Lieutenant General Faizur Rahman, who is the current Quartermaster General (QMG) of the Bangladesh Army, is said to be in command. Rahman, a former chief of the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), was promoted to Lieutenant General after Sheikh Hasina's ouster and made the QMG.

Analysts say the Army now clearly seems to hold the balance. If they back the beleaguered President, Chuppu may be emboldened to exercise his powers by declaring an emergency.

The student protesters, whose street power seems to have clearly dwindled over the last two months, will then be on the backfoot, as would those backing them. But if the Army panders to the interim government, the President may not find it easy to continue.

Meanwhile, the interim government has banned the Chhatra League, the student wing of the Bangladesh Awami League, for their involvement in murders, destructive and terrorist activities, both directly and through incitement during the July agitation.

According to a gazette notification issued by the Public Security Division of the Home Ministry on Wednesday, the decision would be implemented under Clause 18(1) of the Anti-Terrorism Act, 2009. According to the notification, the Chhatra League will be recognised as a terrorist organisation from now.

The Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, along with several organisations and platforms, demanded a ban on the Chhatra League for the atrocities committed during the July uprising. The ultimatum issued by the leaders of the body was supposed to end on Thursday.

(Subir Bhaumik, a former BBC and Reuters correspondent, has worked in Bangladesh as Senior Editor with Dhaka-based bdnews24.com)