Opinion: Decoding Haryana poll conundrum - How Congress lost despite similar vote share to BJP

Haryana was a close election with BJP marginally ahead of Congress by less than one per cent vote share. However, the saffron party romped home comfortably. How did Congress end up on the losing side?

The BJP has won Haryana for a record third time, shocking political pundits and pollsters. It was a close election with BJP marginally ahead of Congress by less than one per cent vote share. While Congress gained 11 per cent vote share compared to 2019, BJP gained around three per cent. However, the saffron party romped home comfortably defeating Congress by 11 seats.

This has led to a lot of debate on traditional and social media. How come despite similar vote shares and gaining significantly compared to previous polls, the Congress ended up on the losing side, in an election it was touted as favourite to win?

We have had instances in the past where parties securing more votes have ended up winning fewer seats and losing the elections. In 2018 in Madhya Pradesh, BJP bagged 41.6 per cent vote share and won 109 seats while INC bagged 41.5 per cent vote share but won 114 seats. In Odisha earlier this year, BJD bagged 40.22 per cent vote share and won 51 seats while BJP bagged lesser vote share of 40.07 per cent but won the state with 78 seats.

India operates on first past the post system, meaning to win an election you need to get the highest number of votes amongst the candidates contesting, and not majority votes.

The Verdict Puzzle

While BJP bagged 39.94 per cent vote share (approximately, 40 per cent), Congress bagged 39.09 per cent (approximately, 39 per cent), a lead of just 0.85 per cent. Both parties contested on 89 of the 90 seats, Congress leaving Bhiwani for CPM, and BJP backing Gopal Kanda in Sirsa.

In terms of seats while BJP won 48 (+8), Congress could win just 37 (+6). Congress gained around 11 per cent vote share while BJP just three per cent, largely at the expense of JJP which could not even secure one per cent.

Haryana state elections have been a nightmare for pollsters. In 2014, BJP bagged 33 per cent vote share and secured 47 seats. In 2019, its vote share increased by four per cent to 37 per cent, but its seat tally declined to 40. In 2024, its vote share increased by three per cent to 40 per cent, while its seat tally increased to 48.

In 2014, INC bagged 21 per cent vote share and secured 15 seats. In 2019, its vote share increased by seven per cent to 28 per cent, its seat tally doubled to 31. In 2024, its vote share increased by 11 per cent to 39 per cent, while its seat tally increased to just 37. That’s why many pollsters have got it wrong not only this time but even in the past.

Vote Share Density

The average vote share of candidates winning in Haryana in 2024 state elections is 48 per cent. On 39 seats BJP candidates recorded vote share in the range of 40 per cent -50 per cent, corresponding number for Congress is 32. On 19 seats BJP candidates recorded vote share above 50 per cent, corresponding number for Congress is 12. On 58 seats BJP recorded a higher vote share than its state average of 40%, against Congress party’s 44, giving it an edge.

On 31 seats BJP candidates recorded higher vote share than 48 per cent, the threshold required to win any seat in this election, against Congress party’s 26. This helped the BJP win more seats than Congress, convert its vote share into more seats than the grand old party.

Regional Disparities in Vote Share

While the state-wide vote share of BJP is 40 per cent and Congress 39 per cent, there are significant regional variations. The state is divided into six administrative divisions - Ambala (14 seats), Karnal (13), Hisar and Rohtak (20 each), Gurugram (14) and Faridabad (9 seats).

In Faridabad, BJP secured 46 per cent, INC 33 per cent vote share, resulting in BJP sweeping the region 7-2 in terms of seats. In Gurugram, BJP secured 41 per cent, INC 39 per cent vote share, BJP leading 10-4 in seat tally.

In Karnal, BJP secured 45 per cent, INC 37 per cent vote share, BJP leading 10-3 in seat tally. In Hisar, BJP secured 36 per cent, INC 41 per cent vote share, INC leading 10-7 in seat tally with Others bagging 3 seats.

In Rohtak, BJP secured 38 per cent, INC 42 per cent vote share, BJP and INC both leading in 9 seats each, Others bagging 2 seats. In Ambala, BJP secured 42 per cent, INC 40 per cent vote share, INC leading with 9-5 in seat tally, this anomaly of BJP trailing despite higher vote share needs further investigation.

While Gurugram is dominated by Ahirs, Faridabad is by Gujjars, in Karnal and Ambala, Punjabi/Khatri, Brahmins, Baniya community dominate the political landscape. Hisar and Rohtak are dominated by Jats. Dalits are in good numbers across the divisions, lowest in Karnal and highest in Hisar followed by Ambala and Rohtak.

So while at state level, both parties were almost tied in vote shares, BJP recorded higher vote share than Congress in 4 of the 6 divisions - Ambala, Karnal, Gurugram and Faridabad. This led to BJP leading against Congress in terms of seat tally decisively in all these regions except Ambala.

Of the 36 seats in Karnal, Gurugram and Faridabad, BJP won 27 and Congress just 9. BJP won 75 per cent of the seats, leading by 18 seats.

Of the two regions where Congress led BJP in terms of vote shares, Hisar and Rohtak, Congress was leading though not by a big margin in Hisar in seats tally. It won 10 of the 20 seats, while in Rohtak, honors were shared with the BJP.

Of the 40 seats in these two divisions, Congress won 19 and BJP 16, with the grand old party having a lead of just three seats. In Ambala as well it was leading by four seats, taking the total lead to 7 seats and neutralising BJP’s lead to 11 seats (18-7).

Consistent vs Concentrated Vote Share

A standard deviation is a measure of how dispersed the data, in this case vote share, is in relation to the state-wide vote share. The standard deviation of BJP’s vote share is 13.4 per cent versus 11.8 per cent of the Congress across all vidhan sabha seats.

A comparatively low standard deviation for Congress indicates the vote share recorded by its candidates were clustered tightly around the state-wide average of 39 per cent, whereas the threshold for winning a seat in this poll is 48 per cent.

A comparatively high standard deviation for BJP indicates its vote shares are more spread out from its state-wide average vote share of 40 per cent, thus having higher chances of breaching the 48 per cent threshold to win any seat.

Congress had a more consistent vote share vis-a-vis BJP across the state, while the saffron party has more concentrated vote share which gives it an edge to pull off seats in its strong regions. This is captured in the seat share to vote share ratio which represents a party’s ability to convert votes into seats in a first past the post system.

In 2014, BJP recorded a higher standard deviation of 14.3 per cent vis-a-vis 12.2 per cent for INC. This resulted in BJP recording a higher seat share to vote share ratio of 1.57, it winning 47 seats on a vote share of 33 per cent.

In 2019, INC recorded a higher standard deviation of 15.5 per cent vis-a-vis 11 per cent for BJP. This resulted in INC recording a marginally higher seat share to vote share ratio of 1.22, it winning 31 seats on a vote share of 28 per cent.

In 2024, BJP recorded a higher standard deviation of 13.4 per cent vis-a-vis 11.8 per cent for BJP. This resulted in BJP recording a higher seat share to vote share ratio of 1.34, it winning 48 seats on a vote share of 40 per cent.

To understand this further, let's take the BSP’s performance in UP in the 2022 state elections. While BSP bagged 12.9 per cent vote share it could win just one seat. On the other hand, Raja Bhaiyya’s party won two seats with just 0.2 per cent vote share.

While BSP had decent vote share / presence throughout the state, Raja Bhaiyya’s party had concentrated vote share in his traditional strongholds helping it win more seats than the BJP.

INC couldn’t make a dent in BJP vote share

While Congress gained 11 per cent, BJP also gained three per cent vote share. In general elections, BJP lost 12 per cent vote share, down from 58 per cent in 2019 to 46 per cent in 2024. This was lapped up by the Congress, up from 29 per cent in 2019 to 44 per cent in 2024. This led to BJP losing five seats to the grand old party in Lok Sabha.

In the state polls, Congress couldn’t make a dent in BJP vote share gaining largely at expense of JJP which received a backlash from Jats for aligning with the BJP. Here as well, it couldn’t benefit 100 per cent from JJP meltdown, as a section of its votes were pulled by the BJP.

Eleven per cent vote share loss of JJP was lapped up by Congress and three per cent by BJP. This helped BJP gain four seats in Rohtak and one seat in Hisar. In these two regions itself, JJP had bagged 8 of its 10 seat tally in 2019 state elections.

In direct contests on 72 seats in 2024 state elections between the Congress and the BJP, the saffron party won 41 while grand old party 31. In terms of vote shares it enjoyed an overall lead of two per cent on these seats. In 2019, there were 51 such direct contests which were tied with Congress winning 26 and BJP 25 seats.

In terms of caste wise support as well, Congress seems to have lost support amongst Jats (-11 per cent), OBCs (-19 per cent), Jatavs / Other SCs (-18 per cent / -35 per cent) compared to general elections as per CSDS post poll reports.

Conceptually, party number two (Congress in this case) cannot win an election without making a dent in the vote share of party number one (BJP in this case). It cannot win by just aggregating the vote share of others. Congress failed in this aspect.