Israel-Iran Conflict: A Prelude to World War III?

Smoke fills the air. Debris everywhere. Screams. Chaos. Fear. Destruction. Gaza lies in ruins—over 40,000 dead. South Lebanon seems destined to follow. The Middle East is burning. Tanks are rolling into Lebanon. Bombs exploded in Beirut. Hezbollah loses commanders almost daily. Civilians scramble for shelter every minute. Is this the start of a world war?

Smoke fills the air. Debris everywhere. Screams. Chaos. Fear. Destruction. Gaza lies in ruins—over 40,000 dead. South Lebanon seems destined to follow. The Middle East is burning. Tanks are rolling into Lebanon. Bombs exploded in Beirut. Hezbollah loses commanders almost daily. Civilians scramble for shelter every minute.

Amidst this turmoil, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the people of Iran and reached out to the people of Lebanon. This war isn’t just happening outside of Israel—Netanyahu has many questions to answer from his people. He is fighting the battle of his life. Around 60,000 Israelis are homeless. The IDF and ISA have vowed to bring them home. In a 'direct' call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Netanyahu, the U.S. urged Israel to avoid a disproportionate attack on Iran. The region teeters on a razor’s edge. While the U.S. fears strikes on oil facilities and nuclear sites could ignite the Middle East, Netanyahu views this as a chance to cripple the economic resources of the IRGC and, in effect, the Iranian regime under Ayatollah Khamenei. The world watches, holding its breath.**

What’s next? What’s at stake for both Netanyahu and the Iranian Supreme Leader? Will Israel heed Biden’s call for restraint with Iran? Is this conflict unfolding according to Netanyahu’s plans? Is this what Israel wanted? These questions remain unanswered.

Dana Stroul, Director of Research and Shelly and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, took office in February 2024 after serving as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East from 2021 to 2023. In pursuit of answers, India Today spoke to Stroul. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has suffered severe losses, with much of its leadership eliminated in IDF strikes. However, did Iran decide to launch over 180 missiles into Israel after Hezbollah chief Syed Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination? Stroul has a different view. According to her, the situation began on October 7 last year. "It’s crucial to remember where this started—on October 7th, when Hamas invaded Israel and brutally killed over 1,000 Israeli citizens. Hamas, like Hezbollah, is an Iranian-backed, trained, armed, and funded terrorist group. On October 8th, less than 24 hours after Hamas's attack, Hezbollah also began attacking Israel. Over the past year, from October 7th to now, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen have escalated against Israel and attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis are trying to shut down international shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah’s missiles have forced more than 65,000 Israelis to flee northern Israel. In April, Iran even launched a direct attack on Israel, something we haven’t seen in decades. And let’s not forget the October 1st attack on Israel.” Blaming Iran for the current turmoil in the region, Stroul adds, “Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles into Israel. No country does that without intending to kill many people and destroy significant infrastructure. These are acts of war and terrorism. Israel’s goal has been to neutralise these threats before they can endanger Israeli citizens again.”

Last Wednesday, Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, delivered a stern warning to Iran: “Our strike will be lethal, precise, and, above all, surprising. They won’t know what hit them until they see the results.” But Iran hasn’t backed down either, threatening Israel with severe consequences. Stroul believes the region is already at war.

“When an Iranian-backed group in Yemen is firing missiles and drones at commercial ships in the Red Sea, and Iran is launching 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, with Israel considering how to retaliate, that’s war. But it could get much worse. Iran hasn’t just threatened Israel again; it’s also warned Gulf countries that host U.S. forces, saying that if they participate or allow their airspace to be used for Israeli strikes, they’re in danger of Iranian retaliation too.”

So, what’s the U.S. trying to prevent right now? “Washington is laser-focused on avoiding a larger regional war, where Iran isn’t just targeting Israel but the entire region. Think about closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing more civilian deaths and widespread destruction across the Middle East. That’s what the U.S. is trying to avoid,” Stroul explains. In her assessment, Netanyahu made his position clear to Biden during their call: no country can tolerate 180 ballistic missiles, but any response must be calibrated to prevent escalation into a broader conflict.

The killing of 12 Druze children playing football in northern Israel, an act attributed to Hezbollah, marked a tipping point for Israel, according to Stroul. She credits Israel’s military actions to precise intelligence and operations aimed at taking down senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. How much damage has Israel inflicted on Hezbollah? Stroul details, “Israel has destroyed more than 50% of Hezbollah’s missile and drone arsenal, meaning 50% fewer weapons to threaten Israeli citizens. Israel is now thinking about Hezbollah’s role as Tehran’s insurance policy. The belief was that if the Iranian regime felt threatened by Israel, it would unleash Hezbollah and its missiles to overwhelm Israel’s defense systems in a war. Now, much of that threat has been decimated.”

Is Israel prepared for an all-out war? Stroul doesn’t think so. She argues that Iran’s conventional military forces are vastly outmatched by the U.S., and America’s long-standing defense ties with the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel give it significant leverage.

Are we edging towards World War 3? Stroul sees early warning signs. “When you look at the disinformation campaigns, foreign interference in democratic processes, the weapons build-up, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, and the deepening strategic ties between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, these are worrying signs. I think it’s more of a competition between two coalitions. On one side, you have the U.S., NATO, and partners like India, who see the benefits of the current international order—addressing climate change, free trade, people-to-people ties, and standing up to those who use force to alter borders. That’s why the U.S. supports Ukraine and Israel. On the other side, you have Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea. These nations use their positions at the UN Security Council, along with misinformation and disinformation, to undermine the existing order for their benefit, not everyone’s. It’s a dangerous trend.”

Despite the strong U.S.-Israel alliance, Stroul believes America won’t get directly involved in this war. " The U.S. has made it clear it doesn’t want to escalate this into a full-blown conflict. Likewise, Iran doesn’t want direct military conflict with the U.S. because it knows America’s military is the strongest in the world, and after years of sanctions, Iran is no match. ”