Opinion: Will Arvind Kejriwal's gamble work in Delhi polls?

Corruption allegations and lack of sympathy for Kejriwal during the general elections in Delhi indicate the AAP's "party with a difference" image has taken a beating.

Arvind Kejriwal resigned as Delhi chief minister and the Aam Aadmi Party appointed Atishi as his replacement in a bid to recover lost ground, boost his image, and improve its prospects of retaining power in Delhi in elections due early next year. Corruption allegations and lack of sympathy for Kejriwal during the general elections in Delhi indicate the AAP’s “party with a difference” image has taken a beating.

The Bharatiya Janata Party sees the resignation as validation of its charges against the ex-CM, bolstering its own chances in state elections. The Congress, despite the AAP being part of the INDIA bloc, also sees an opportunity to revive itself in Delhi. The AAP has grown at the expense of Congress and Others in Delhi and its vote blocs are fairly complementary, consisting of Dalits, the poor, and minorities. The AAP and the Congress both pocket anti-BJP votes.

Impact of Kejriwal's resignation

Kejriwal is India’s second-most popular chief minister, according to the India Today Mood of the Nation survey. However, his support declined from 19.6 per cent in February 2024 to 13.8 per cent in August 2024. The percentage of people satisfied with Kejriwal’s work as chief minister also declined from 58 per cent in August 2023 to 44 per cent in August 2024, indicating some impact of the allegations on his image.

According to an India Today Political Stock Exchange survey, 49 per cent of respondents felt Kejriwal should have resigned before going to jail; 40 per cent thought he should have dissolved the Assembly; and 31 per cent felt his resignation would impact Delhi elections. Even 32, 33, and 19 per cent of AAP voters respectively feel the same. Kejriwal, an astute politician, sensed this and decided to win the battle in public court.

The opinion was divided at 37 per cent yes and no each when respondents were asked about whether this has impacted Kejriwal’s “kattar imandaar” image. While 32 per cent said his resignation would strengthen the BJP, 30 per cent said it would strengthen the AAP.

Split voting pattern

In Delhi, people vote differently in the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections — regional parties in state polls and national parties in general elections.

In the 2024 general elections, the BJP retained all seven seats despite an alliance between the Congress and the AAP, with the latter making it a “jail ka jawaab vote se” battle. The BJP recorded 54 per cent votes, the AAP 24 per cent, and the Congress, 19 per cent.

In line with earlier trends, the AAP lost 30 per cent of votes in the 2024 general elections compared to the 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, while the BJP gained 16 per cent; the Congress gained 15 per cent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the AAP lost 36 per cent vote share compared to the 2015 Vidhan Sabha polls. It recouped this 36 per cent loss in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, bagging around 54 per cent vote share, gaining, at the expense of the Congress and the BJP, 18 per cent from each party.

This shows around 30 per cent of voters in Delhi are not ideologically aligned to any party, and keep switching between the AAP, the BJP, and the Congress, depending on the nature of the polls. These voters will decide whether or not the AAP wins in Delhi in 2025. It also depends on the impact of corruption allegations on this section of voters. If the AAP gets the support of half of these voters, the vote share of the BJP and the AAP will be tied at 39 per cent each, making it a tight contest.

AAP, Congress seamlessly transfer votes to each other

When the AAP and the Congress formed an alliance in Delhi for the general elections, some analysts were apprehensive about their votes transferring to each other’s candidates. After all, the AAP’s initial politics was squarely anti-Congress.

However, both parties’ voting segments are the same: Dalits, minorities, and the poor. Both bag anti-BJP votes now due to a change in the political landscape. As a result, there was a 100 per cent transfer between parties. In 2019, the two in aggregate contesting separately, bagged 41 per cent of the vote share. In 2024, this increased to 43 per cent.

Who will win Delhi 2025?

The AAP is part of the INDIA bloc. Yet, it shares a peculiar relationship with the Congress. The AAP is in power in two states, and in both, it defeated the Congress to get there. Alliance talks failing in Haryana and the Congress state unit’s scathing attack on Kejriwal after his resignation indicate all is not well between the allies. Congress' Sandeep Dikshit slammed Kejriwal, calling the decision more about business than politics. And the AAP’s Saurabh Bhardwaj called the Congress an opponent that has always helped the BJP in levelling allegations against the party. An alliance between the two in the Delhi polls looks unlikely for now.

A resurgent Congress nationally is not good news for the AAP as it could pull a section of Dalit, Muslim, and poor voters. In the 2017 municipal polls, the AAP, despite sweeping the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2015, lost to the BJP. This was because the Congress and Others gained 11 and 13 per cent of votes compared to 2015 at the expense of the AAP, which bagged a 26 per cent vote share — a loss of 28 per cent compared to 2015.

In the 2022 municipal polls, the AAP won a tight battle against the BJP. It secured a lead of just three per cent compared to 15 per cent in the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. This happened as the Congress gained an eight per cent vote share, recording 12 per cent compared to four per cent in 2020, at the expense of the AAP, which won 134 seats. As a result, AAP won just 54 per cent of the MCD seats compared to the 89 per cent of the assembly strength in the 2020 polls.

Moral of the story: if Congress gains, it will come at the expense of the AAP. So, the AAP has to prevent the loss of Dalits and Muslims, who backed the Congress nationally in the 2024 general elections, to veer towards the grand old party.

Scenario Analysis

• If the Congress gains a five per cent vote share from the AAP, the latter could lose 10 seats to the BJP but still win a comfortable majority of 52 seats.
• If the Congress gains a 10 per cent vote share from the AAP, the latter could lose 15 seats to the BJP and win comfortably with 47 seats, 36 being the halfway mark.
• If the Congress and the BJP both gain a 2.5 per cent vote share each from the AAP, the latter could lose 11 seats to the BJP but still win a comfortable majority of 51 seats.
• If the Congress and the BJP both gain a five per cent vote share from the AAP, the latter could lose half of its 2020 tally, with the BJP emerging as the winner with 39 seats.

The BJP, therefore, can’t just depend on the Congress to damage the AAP’s prospects. It needs to pull anti-incumbency votes to defeat Kejriwal and prevent him from recovering lost ground.

Ten years is a long time to develop a natural anti-incumbency. Delhi is the "karmabhoomi" of the AAP in many ways as it expanded into the rest of the country from here. It is very important for the AAP’s national ambitions to win the state for a record third time, equalling Sheila Dikshit's record.

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)