Opinion: Trump's America First campaign chips away at Dem voter core

The main problem is centred around a significant percentage of Black and Latino men drifting away from the Democrats. Many are taking a right turn towards the Republican Party.

The Democrats are learning a painful lesson this election about class and race – diversity does not mean automatic support and racial solidarity goes only so far. In a dead-even race, any slippage in traditional support can be damaging.

The Kamala Harris campaign is increasingly worried as Donald Trump inches closer in polls, especially in the seven swing states. But the main problem is centred around a significant percentage of Black and Latino men drifting away from the Democrats. Many are taking a right turn towards the Republican Party. Mostly working-class folk whose cultural and social values are more conservative than the Democratic Party would like to admit, leave alone accommodate, their departure can dent an already close race. They are not your classic progressives.

Trump’s appeal among Black and Latino voters

Trump, on the other hand, speaks their language in many ways. He has talked incessantly about the economic pain felt by working-class Americans whose jobs have gone abroad or simply vanished. His pitch resonates with many Black and Latino men who are willing to ignore Trump’s overtly racist rhetoric and tax breaks for billionaires.

They like and support his agenda on the main issues – building a border wall and deporting illegal workers. They also like Trump’s foreign policy – concentrate at home not abroad. “America First” appeals to them. For younger Black and Hispanic voters, the Trump brand is seen as “normal”, not abominable.

Yes, there’s a bit of the bro vibe, a bit of misogyny mixed in, and a belief that Harris won’t be able to save America from wars abroad and chaos within. But the overarching worry is economic insecurity with high food and gas prices. Buying a house has become almost impossible for young Americans.

For weeks, Beltway bigwigs and the Harris campaign couldn’t fathom how, or why, anyone – leave alone Black men – would support Trump. Their inability to understand the frustration with Democrats and their inability to deliver meant they either gave no response or responded too late. On Monday, the Harris campaign unveiled the “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” which calls for loans for Black entrepreneurs and making access to capital easier. Harris is also going on a media blitz that includes several Black outlets.

With just three weeks until election day, it’s clear that Harris has serious coalition problems. Black voters have been the backbone of the Democratic Party for decades – they helped put Barack Obama and Joe Biden in office – but they aren’t as enthralled with Harris after nearly four years of the Biden-Harris administration.

Harris faces challenges as Trump gains

A New York Times/Siena College poll released this weekend showed the drifting votes cut like a knife through the heart of Democratic circles, causing spin masters to spin faster and strategists to dream up plans in a hurry. While Harris retains a solid 78 per cent support among Black voters, she is way below Biden and Obama who enjoyed 90 per cent and 92 per cent support in the community.

Trump, meanwhile, has gone from 7 per cent support among Blacks in 2016 to 15 per cent in 2024. He has essentially doubled his numbers which has given the Democrats pause. The gains have come largely from Black men, some of whom feel the Democrats have not delivered in terms of jobs and the economy. They also have problems with illegal immigration, Trump’s favourite topic.

The story is similar in the Latino community. The poll showed 43 per cent of Hispanic voters support building a wall to curb illegal immigrants while 45 per cent have no problem with the Trump’s deportation plans. This may also shock Democratic Party strategists, since Biden and Harris devised a generous immigration policy partly to please Latino voters.

The erosion of support alarmed the party enough to send Obama into battle mode last week to rally the faithful. Directly addressing Black men, he said they were coming up “with all kinds of reasons and excuses” to not vote for Harris. “Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president,” the former president berated. Obama’s scolding didn’t go down well with many voters interviewed on TV after the rally – they thought the message was patronising as if they couldn’t make their own judgments.

The Democratic Party cannot plead ignorance at the softening of support among reliable, core constituents because it’s been happening for some time. Why didn’t the Biden campaign and now the Harris campaign read the mood earlier and respond? Even as Harris has done interviews, she has missed opportunities to distance herself from the policies that clearly failed, including the decision to do away with restrictions on the border that Trump had imposed.

The race is a dead heat and neither campaign can afford mistakes. Voting for Trump is not seen as an embarrassment to the same degree as four or eight years ago. His willingness to “fight” – whatever that means in reality – is appealing to those who may not have taken him seriously once.

(Seema Sirohi is a Washington, DC-based columnist and the author of 'Friends With Benefits: The India-US Story', a book about the past 30 years of the relationship)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)