China May Chafe as North Korea Sends Soldiers to Fight Ukraine

North Korea’s decision to dispatch troops to help Russia subdue Ukraine may put another Kremlin ally, China, in a tough spot diplomatically.

Earlier this month, China and North Korea hailed their 75 years of diplomatic relations by reaffirming ties that they once described as being close as “lips and teeth.”

But North Korea’s decision to dispatch thousands of troops to Russia to fight Ukraine, revealed this week by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, will test those bonds like never before.

China has been frustrated by the instability Pyongyang sows in North Asia with its nuclear weapons program and its periodic threats to annihilate South Korea. Now North Korea is inflaming a war in Europe, which could deepen a broader confrontation over the global order that pits the United States and its allies against an axis of anti-Western powers led by China and Russia.

China has tried to cast itself as a force for peace and contrast itself with the United States, which it accuses of trying to wage a new Cold War. The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative.

Another concern China’s leadership may have, analysts said, is the exchange of military technology from Russia to North Korea in return for sending troops. That could embolden the North to act more aggressively toward South Korea or Japan, and at the same time, diminish Beijing’s ability to influence the reclusive state even as it relies on China for trade and aid.

North Korea’s provocative behavior has already contributed to a trilateral security alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea signed at Camp David last year. The pact, which China has likened to an Asian NATO, has added to Beijing’s feeling that it is being constrained and encircled by the United States and its allies.

China is now stuck in a middle ground. While the West has tried to isolate Russia, China has deepened trade and diplomatic ties to Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Beijing may not know how to rein in North Korea’s efforts to help the Kremlin, said Victor D. Cha, a professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“China is caught between paralysis and incompetence on this. While they are supporting Russia’s efforts in the war indirectly, they cannot be happy with the D.P.R.K. piece,” Mr. Cha said, referring to North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “There is nothing good for them in this, short or long term.”

Questions will linger over whether Beijing knew beforehand about Pyongyang’s plans, much the way speculation persists about whether it had prior knowledge of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

China has not commented on the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia other than to say that it hopes all parties in the conflict will de-escalate and work toward a political settlement.

At a summit of emerging market countries in Russia on Wednesday, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, reiterated that stance by calling on countries not to add “oil to the fire.”

The United States says China could help end the fighting by pulling its support for Russia, which includes supplying dual-use technologies — items as varied as microchips, chemicals or drones that can go into either civilian products or weapons — and buying massive quantities of Russian oil.

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

• A Ukrainian Loan Backed by Russian Assets: The United States and Europe are close to finalizing a plan to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan backed by Russia’s frozen central bank assets by the end of the year, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said.
• BRICS Summit: President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who is hosting a gathering of the so-called BRICS group that includes China and India, is hoping to use the meeting as a counterweight to the West.
• Unwavering Support: President Biden urged Germany and other Western allies not to waver in their support for Ukraine, using what may be his final trip to Europe as president to bolster the grueling fight against Russia’s invasion.

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• Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details.
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