Middle East War Hits Home in Michigan, Threatening Slotkin in Tight Senate Race

Anger among the battleground state’s sizable contingent of Arab American voters about violence in Gaza and Lebanon could hurt the Democratic congresswoman in a close contest.

When Representative Elissa Slotkin of Michigan announced her candidacy for Senate early last year, Democrats had high hopes that her record as a defense hawk and centrist with proven cross-party appeal would make her an ideal candidate for keeping the swing-state seat in Democratic hands.

But now, Ms. Slotkin’s résumé and her pro-Israel record are threatening to become liabilities in a deadlocked race that could shift the balance of power in the Senate.

Michigan’s sizable contingent of Arab Americans has been directly affected by Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and especially Lebanon. And in their grief and anger, some of these normally reliable Democratic voters are weighing withholding their support from Ms. Slotkin or sitting out the election altogether, potentially cutting into the margin she would need to win.

“This year, I’m not going to be voting,” Nina Saad, 49, said last week, as she sipped from a steaming demitasse cup of black coffee outside one of Dearborn’s many cafes. Neither Ms. Slotkin nor her Republican opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, she said, was offering a message that would motivate her to vote.

“Everybody’s taking the wrong position on what’s going on overseas,” Ms. Saad said of the candidates, adding that her friends and neighbors “all feel the same.”

The political stakes of the race could not be higher. Democrats are in an uphill fight to keep their majority in the Senate, which they currently hold by a mere two seats. In order to have any chance of maintaining control, they must not only defend incumbents in solidly red states including Montana and Ohio, but also hold onto seats in battleground states including Michigan, where the retirement of Senator Debbie Stabenow has left a seat up for grabs.

There have already been ample signs that the escalating violence in the Middle East is fraying the Democratic coalition in Michigan, where Arab American and Muslim activists rallied more than 100,000 Democrats last year to cast “uncommitted” primary votes to protest President Biden’s support for Israel. Leaders of the Uncommitted National Movement have since called on people to vote against former President Donald J. Trump, but declined to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.

Ms. Slotkin initially appeared better situated in her own race. She reached out to religious and community leaders, and by summer, handily won her Senate primary, faring well even in the Arab American stronghold of Dearborn.

But in the last few weeks — around the one-year anniversary of the attack in which Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis in a surprise raid, prompting Israel’s assault on Gaza — the conflict has hit closer to home for many of Michigan’s Arab Americans, and Democratic worries about the political impact have grown more acute. Israel has begun pummeling Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Lebanese Americans, by far the largest segment of Michigan’s estimated 300,000 Arabs, have seen friends, relatives and a member of the local community killed in the onslaught.

Many express a sense of futility with American politics and their choices for president as they refresh WhatsApp group chats to track the latest airstrikes and casualties. And while few are dwelling on the Senate race, many are angry that neither candidate, they say, has publicly shown up lately to check on the community, much less demand Israel halt its barrage, in either Lebanon or Gaza.

“Apathy is obviously growing, and apathy is very dangerous for down-ballot seats,” Mayor Abdullah Hammoud of Dearborn, a Democrat, said in an interview. “For the control of the U.S. Senate and for the White House, it’s the people who sit at home who more than likely will determine the outcome of this election.”

As Ms. Slotkin and Mr. Rogers crisscrossed Michigan last week, they touted their national security credentials: Hers include a career at the C.I.A., multiple tours of Iraq and seats on the House’s Armed Services and Homeland Security committees, while his include serving in the Army and as an F.B.I. agent before chairing the House Intelligence Committee.

But neither offered unprompted thoughts about the Middle East conflicts or their effect on Michigan’s Arab American community.

When approached on the sidelines of a campaign event at Central Michigan University last week, Ms. Slotkin argued that her experience made her uniquely sensitive to the plight of Arab Americans in her state.

“It is not hard for me as someone who’s served three tours in Iraq, who watched the American military fail in places like Anbar Province and Ramadi and Falluja, to have deep concerns about what’s going on with the Israeli military campaign in Gaza and now in Lebanon,” Ms. Slotkin said, adding, “You can express empathy and concern and nuance, even when conversations are difficult.”

Ms. Slotkin pushed back on the idea that the community’s frustrations might complicate her road to victory, citing large meetings she has held with local Syrian, Iraqi and Pakistani groups, and said a “silent majority” of Arabs and Muslims would support her candidacy.

“There are people who are so concerned about Donald Trump winning again that even though they’re not happy with Biden and Harris, they just don’t want their children growing up in a country like that again,” she said. “So I think that there is, like in every community, a sort of silent majority who says, ‘I’m unhappy, but I’m a pragmatist with my vote.’”

But some local leaders say Ms. Slotkin may be overestimating her base of support.

“I don’t see any silent majority,” said Hassan al-Qazwini, imam of the Islamic Institute of America in Dearborn Heights, one of the area’s largest mosques. “When I talk to the community members, there’s no silent majority supporting her.”

Mr. Rogers did not engage with several attempts to interview him for this article.

Activists, community and religious leaders, wary that politicians might ignore Michigan’s Arab American community if its members fail to turn out at the polls, have been urging people to swallow their dissatisfaction and vote anyway.

Some, like the Muslim advocacy group Emgage Action, have endorsed Ms. Harris. Others, like the leaders of the Uncommitted movement, have emphasized the importance of voting to defeat Mr. Trump, who was recently endorsed by the Democratic, Yemeni-born mayor of Hamtramck, a Muslim-majority city. Still more have urged voting for third-party presidential candidates who have decried the war in Gaza as a genocide.

But there aren’t any similarly visible campaigns to drive Arab American turnout for the Senate race.

That is partly because community leaders who want to see Ms. Slotkin succeed are finding it awkward to openly promote a pro-Israel candidate. Ms. Slotkin, who is Jewish, has called for a negotiated cease-fire, urged the White House “to use all our leverage” to force Israel to limit civilian casualties and decried Israeli politicians trying to block humanitarian aid shipments as “sick.”

Mr. Rogers has exhorted the Biden administration to send more weapons to aid Israel, particularly after attacks from Iran, and argued that there can be no move toward a cease-fire until the hostages are released.

But over the course of their political careers, Ms. Slotkin has received more contributions from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC than Mr. Rogers. And since the war started, she has voted for measures to fund Israel’s military, impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court over arrest warrants for Israeli officials, forbid the State Department to cite statistics from the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry and equate anti-Zionism with antisemitism.

“Broadly, I think it’s important that Democrats maintain control of the Senate, but it feels like Representative Slotkin is positioning herself to be a Joe Manchin-type figure,” Abbas Alawieh, a Lebanese American and one of the founders of the Uncommitted movement, said in an interview.

While he wanted Mr. Rogers to lose, he added, Ms. Slotkin needed to do a better job of listening to the community and “stop acting like a Republican.”

According to a recent national poll, Arab Americans slightly favor having Republicans in charge of Congress. In interviews last week, few said they wanted a G.O.P. takeover — and none voiced warm feelings toward Mr. Rogers — but many expressed a sense of betrayal about the Biden administration and Democrats aligned with them on the war.

Some community leaders, though, cited hopeful signs for Ms. Slotkin and her party. Assad I. Turfe, the deputy Wayne County executive who has endorsed Ms. Harris, noted that tens of thousands of voters from Democratic strongholds like Detroit had already sent in absentee ballots, suggesting that they were strongly engaged in the election, even amid their discontent about the war.

“While there’s no doubt that emotions are running high among Arab American voters, I believe Democrats will still come out ahead,” Mr. Turfe said. “It’s a reminder that voters understand what’s at stake, especially in the Senate race and other local races.”

That is not enough to motivate some Arab American voters who said they would decline to choose a candidate at all.

“I’ll either skip it or write in somebody,” Samraa Luqman, a Yemeni American community organizer and lifelong liberal, said of the Senate race, adding that she planned to cast a protest vote for Mr. Trump. “We cannot back candidates down the ballot that are going to be pro-genocide.”

Earlier this month, the Dearborn-based Arab American Political Action Committee urged community members to “not vote for either Democrat Elissa Slotkin or Republican Mike Rogers.”

“Frankly,” the group said in a statement, “they are both warmongers and do not deserve your vote.”