America's election bellwether: How a county predicted last 11 winners

Tucked away in the far northwest corner of country just before the cliffs drop off into the Pacific Ocean lies America's last true bellwether county.

A decidedly purple place, the small, rural region of Clallam County in Washington boasts an unmatched record of voting for every presidential election winner since Ronald Reagan in 1980. 

This is the longest success streak of any of America's 3,143 counties.

Now all eyes are on this unassuming county once again to see which way the wind is blowing for 2024, as vice president Kamala Harris faces off against former president Donald Trump in a divisive, neck and neck race.

When traveling across Clallam County, the tight nature of the 2024 election is on full display. 

Visitors heading west into town on Highway 101 are met with a series of Harris-Walz yard signs, shortly before a massive Trump-Vance banner shows up in the same stretch of field.

But while politics at a national scale have become toxic, in this small community where Democrats and Republicans have lived side by side for decades, residents have succeeded in keeping a calm head - or avoiding talking politics altogether.

‘I think one of the things that makes us different from a lot of places is we are still a small town at 70,000 people,’ said Clallam County Republican Party Chair Pam Blakeman, who has lived in the community for more than 40 years. ‘I can't go to the grocery store without running into somebody I know.’

Both her neighbors on either side are Democrats. They share garden produce. 

In some ways she said the makeup of the community makes them more communicative, but there are topics they also do not talk about. One of them being Trump.

Port Angeles is the largest city in the county and is home to around 20,000 residents. Based on the signage around town, it appears deeply purple. 

At the Dungeness Crab Festival in the heart of town, local voters could be found from both sides of the aisle, with attendees spotted sporting both Democrat and Republican presidential gear.

One passerby was overheard complimenting a man's Trump hat. Another man had on a camo Harris-Walz cap. With just over 20 days to go before Election Day, multiple people sported Trump and Harris t-shirts.

The festival has been going on annually since 2003 and more than 10,000 people were expected to stop by over the course of three perfect fall days.

‘I think people are careful to remember that we are all neighbors here living, working and playing on the peninsula, and so for the most part, we try and be respectful of everybody’s views,’ said Erin Kirkland who is on the marketing team for the festival.

When it comes to Kirkland’s personal politics, she is a Democrat and will be supporting Harris in November. 

The most important issues for her are health care and a woman’s right to choose.

‘We’re feeling pretty good about it,’ she said of the election. ‘However, we saw what’s happened previously, so I won’t say we’re not nervous, we are.’

Her comment was echoed by others supporting the Democratic ticket. While Republicans are projecting confidence, Democrats are fearful.

Republican Chris Anderson, a retiree, felt life was better with Trump in office.

‘He can be a little bit difficult, but I liked his policies when he was in office,’ Anderson said. She mentioned illegal immigration as a top issue for her.

Marcus Gunderson voted for Trump 2016 and 2020 and will support him again in November. He retired in 2020 but came out of retirement again in 2022.

‘The cost of living is so outrageous that it takes four of us in one house to support ourselves. It's horrendous,’ he said. ‘Trump has all the answers.’

But Kellyanne Kirk disagreed. While some voters like to argue the economy was better under Trump, she rejected blaming challenges stemming from the pandemic on President Biden and noted deficit spending also increased under his predecessor. Kirk also pointed out her 401K is doing quite well.

‘My retirement is doing fabulous right now, and it's been better than it was under Trump,’ she said with a smile.

She said if it were Nikki Haley or late Senator John McCain running, she would be voting for a Republican, but she will vote for Harris in November because she does not trust Trump. Her husband Ray Kirk agreed.

‘I'll vote for Harris. In terms of credential, competency, experience. She has it hands down over Donald Trump, he said. ‘Donald Trump does have his competencies, but they're not in running the government or bringing people together at all, and I believe his interests are not in the interests of the people.’

When it comes to running as a Republican in the county itself, candidates have been keeping it local.

On Saturday, county Republicans held their Oktoberfest candidate event at the Fairview Grange. GOP men and women of all ages showed up to hear candidates speak about a number of issues and ask their own questions.

More than a handful of attendees were wearing Trump hats or shirts. But the conversation and questions remain largely focused on issues impacting the community such as the cost of living, housing and homelessness and the fentanyl crisis.

Kara Selby, from Sequim, is one of the people who showed up. In the presidential election, she will vote for Trump and praised what she called his ‘strong leadership.’

She is feeling pretty optimistic that Trump will come out on top and claimed more people are expressing support for Trump the former president than in previous years. 

But Democrats there insist enthusiasm has remained strong since the shake up at the top of their ticket with Harris taking over for Biden in July.

Christy Holy is a volunteer with the county Democrats and has been living in the county for eight years. 

She said the feeling after Biden’s debate performance was ‘disappointment’ and ‘fear’ but with Harris taking the reins, she said people became really excited.

There have been questions on whether the enthusiasm over Harris has stalled out nationally, but Holy said excitement remains up in Clallam County.

‘It’s been constant. We’re still getting people. We’ve had to order signs several times because we keep running out of them,’ she said.

Holy said people in the community take politics seriously and really care about what is going on. 

The top issues when she’s out knocking on doors has been the soaring cost of housing and people expressing concerns over reproductive rights. 

Republican state Senate candidate Marcia Kelbon has also been out knocking on doors, some 7,000 of them in the district so far. 

For her, the number one issue that comes up is the economy including what Democrats out canvassing have also been hearing about: the cost of housing.

There is a significant older population on fixed incomes in the area where higher costs have been a serious burden. 

There are also young people who cannot afford homes in the region with prices going up.

When it comes to the presidential race, Kelbon said she voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary. But she would not share who she plans to vote for in November. 

She claimed she has been focused entirely on her own race and staying local. She also criticized the divisiveness she's seen in the presidential race.

Kelbon cannot be certain which way the race is headed in the county. Ahead of the first presidential debate, her campaign commissioned polling that showed Trump leading Harris in the district which includes parts of Clallam County. But since then there has been notable changes in the race.

‘I have no idea. I really don’t,’ she said of what she expects. ‘If I was able to call bets like that I would have way more money in the bank from buying stock.’

But head out of Port Angeles into more rural parts of the county, and the region appears to turn a deeper shade of red.

Along winding roads are Trump flags and signs. But at one remote location, someone must have pulled over along the highway to paint an 'x' across a large sign for the former president.

About an hour southwest from Port Angeles is Forks, Washington, of Twilight fame. The vampire books and blockbuster movies were set in the town of less than 4,000 and fans pilgrimage to the area on a regular basis.

Storefronts along the Main Street have posters of characters Bella Swan and Edward Cullen in windows and sell a variety of Twilight inspired merchandise. 

Visitors can see the pickup truck Swan drove parked outside the visitor center or swing by the Swan House to take pictures.

But besides the name and a few referenced locations, the town bears little resemblance to the one featured in the movie franchise. Based on the number of signs alone, it feels like Trump country.

People in Forks are far less inclined to talk politics. But at the diner The In Place, a few people were willing to give it a go. They too reflected on a county divided.

Server Kim, 39, said she and her husband are all in for Trump in November.

‘I’m voting for Trump because I want to see changes made,’ she said but declined to share specifics. ‘I feel he is the only candidate that can move forward with that change.’

‘I feel like when you live here, it’s almost like we don't matter,’ she added. ‘Our voices aren't heard as much out here, but people have strong beliefs, and they stand by that.’

But Sandy, who was there enjoying lunch, said she would be voting for Harris as the only ‘sane’ choice.

‘The thing that bothers me is that people who support Trump have no idea in my opinion that they’re not going to get anything that they think Trump is going to give them,’ she said. ‘I think they’ll be the most disappointed people in the world if he gets elected.’

Sandy believes Trump will help the rich and himself, but she worries Democrats need to do more so people where she lives do not feel ignored.

‘I have a lot of Trump friends that are wonderful people, and I don't want to see them written off by anybody,’ she said. ‘We're good people. We need to come together. We need to find commonality. We need to listen to each other, and I don't know how to make that happen,’ Sandy said.

Twenty minutes outside Forks, and visitors hit the beach in La Push, also featured in Twilight. It sits on Quileute Tribal land. 

At least one home there has a Harris sign prominently displayed out front on a truck. It was the only Harris sign spotted in the area after hours of driving.

But even back in Port Angeles, questions remain about Harris’ ability to lock down the county just as the race nationally is looking like a nail-biter. And there is another unknown variable in play this fall.

Outside Crab Fest, Ron Coffman was handing out t-shirts that promote Robert Kennedy Jr. for president. 

The shirts are leftovers from the Independent candidate’s presidential bid before he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump. A Trump sticker had been slapped on the front of every t-shirt.

Coffman was going to vote for Kennedy in November. He was never really a Trump supporter and described him as the kind of person he would not want at his house. But now he plans on voting for the Republican nominee for president.

‘I will now because that puts Bobby [Kennedy] in a position to actually make the changes that America needs, not just what I want,’ he said.

It is not clear if there are enough Kennedy supporters to sway the outcome in this bellwether alone, but Coffman’s table of Kennedy turned Trump t-shirts has been a popular stop for festival-goers.