Banning tobacco sales can prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths: Lancet study

Smoking rates are projected to drop to 21% in men and 4% in women by 2050, according to the new Lancet study.

In Short

• Smoking has caused more than 175 million deaths globally in three decades
• Cutting smoking rates to 5% by 2050 could increase life expectancy by a year for men
• Banning tobacco sales could save 1.2 million lives from lung cancer by 2095

A recent global study suggests that cutting smoking rates to just 5% by 2050 could increase life expectancy by a year for men and 0.2 years for women.

Smoking rates are projected to drop to 21% in men and 4% in women by that time. Researchers also predict that accelerating efforts to end smoking could prevent 876 million years of lives lost.

The study, published in The Lancet Public Health, highlighted that if smoking is eliminated in people born between 2006 and 2010, over 1.2 million lung cancer deaths could be prevented in 185 countries by 2095.

"We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking," said senior author, Stein Emil Vollset, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, US, which coordinates the GBD study.

While no country has fully adopted a tobacco-free generation policy, which would ban tobacco sales to anyone born after a certain year, the idea could have a significant impact.

New Zealand had passed a law in 2022 to ban tobacco sales to people born after 2009 but repealed it earlier this year.

Lead author Stein Emil Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) emphasised that sustained global efforts to reduce smoking are crucial to preventing millions of premature deaths.

As per the study, smoking has accounted for more than 175 million deaths globally over the past three decades.

Even with progress in reducing smoking rates in many countries, smoking continues to be a major contributor to preventable illness and death.

"Although global smoking prevalence will continue to decrease in the reference scenario, substantial burden will still accumulate in the future due to smoking. Smoking elimination, even by 2050, would result in gains in life expectancy at birth at a rate not possible by many other interventions," the authors wrote.