Toronto crime spikes on weekends and holidays—researchers use modeling and visualization to find hot spots

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Criminal behavior in Toronto's crime hot spots is higher on weekends and holidays, according to a new study from the University of Waterloo and supported by the International Space University based in France.

For the first time, researchers examined how both geography and the distinction between business/non-business days impact crime hot spots in Toronto. Using modeling and visualization techniques, they found that weekends and holidays have significantly higher assault and robbery levels in areas with high business and entertainment activity compared to business days. In comparison, northern residential areas in Toronto experience reduced activity of breaking and entering, auto theft, and theft over $5,000.

The researchers assert that understanding when and where crime occurs can assist in developing effective crime control strategies. The research is published in the journal Deviant Behavior.

"Modeling and visualizing crime patterns is a helpful tool for professionals like urban planners and police officers," said Renan Cai, Ph.D. candidate in the Faculty of Environment. "The more information we have, the better decisions we can ultimately make about policing, patrol, crime prevention, even things like neighborhood watch."

The researchers emphasize the need for customized crime control measures in different small areas within the city, especially during weekends and holidays. For example, an area with increasing robbery occurrences and an area with increasing breaking and entering may require higher patrol frequencies and more video surveillance.

The researchers used Toronto Open Data and major crime data from the Toronto Police Public Safety Data Portal between 2015 and 2019. They analyzed the dates and locations of occurrences of five major crime types (assault, robbery, auto theft, breaking and entering, and theft over $5,000).

Future research could investigate other offences or look at geography and time factors, such as how long weekends impact crime in the city.

"There are so many people who live in cities today," said Su-Yin Tan, a professor in Waterloo's Faculty of Environment. "Our cities are rapidly changing all the time because of gentrification, technology and immigration. So, this research allows us better to understand the behavior of criminal activity in neighbourhoods and plan accordingly."

More information: Renan Cai et al, Are There Non-Business Days for Crime? A Small-Area Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis of Crime Patterns, Deviant Behavior (2024). DOI: 10.1080/01639625.2024.2387659

Provided by University of Waterloo