‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ to Lose $150 Million to $200 Million in Theatrical Run After Bombing at Box Office

“Joker: Folie à Deux” was primed to be another twisted comic book smash. Instead, the sequel to 2019’s billion-dollar hit “Joker” is a box office disaster.

So far, the offbeat musical about Batman’s notorious foe has grossed $51.5 million domestically and $165 million globally after two weeks of release. By comparison, the first “Joker” had generated $96.2 million domestically and $248.4 million globally after three days of release. The sequel won’t earn anywhere near that much by the end of its theatrical run, with ticket sales projected to stall at a lifetime gross of $65 million domestically and $210 million to $215 million globally when “Folie à Deux” leaves the big screen.

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That’s a huge problem because “Joker 2” cost $200 million to produce and roughly $100 million to market and distribute. At this rate, the film won’t get anywhere close to the $450 million needed to break even in its theatrical run (ticket sales are split between studios and theater owners). Sources at Warner Bros. say the movie will break even at $375 million. After critics and audiences flat out rejected the big-budget tentpole, which received a 33% “rotten” average on Rotten Tomatoes and a rare “D” grade on CinemaScore, it’s shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest catastrophes. It’s now poised to lose at least $150 million to $200 million in its theatrical run, according to the estimates of insiders as well as three rival executives with knowledge of similar productions. One source speculates the film will end up losing its backers just north of $200 million, while another believes the damages may be closer to $125 million.

“Any estimates suggested by anonymous ‘insiders’ or ‘rival executives’ are grossly wrong and continues a trend where rumor is reported as fact,” a Warner Bros. spokesperson said in a statement. “The film continues to play in theatrical release, included with this week’s opening in China, and will continue to earn revenue throughout its home viewing and ancillary run.”

Warner Bros. does have the potential to recoup at least a bit of its investment when “Folie à Deux” lands on home entertainment platforms on Oct. 29. Yet its paltry grosses represent a shocking collapse from “Joker,” which became an unlikely and undisputed box office champion with $335 million in North America and $1.078 billion worldwide. It stood at the time as the highest grossing R-rated movie in history. Disney’s Marvel sequel “Deadpool & Wolverine” supplanted that record in the U.S. ($635 million) and worldwide ($1.32 billion) over the summer, though “Joker” remains the biggest R-rated international release with $743 million. Budgeted at roughly $65 million, “Joker” was one of the most profitable comic book adaptations ever made — although Warner Bros. had to split the riches with two co-financiers, which the studio added to mitigate risk on the unconventional DC antihero story. Warners has one co-financier, Domain, on the sequel.

Given the monster success of “Joker,” which also scored two Oscars, it’s not surprising that “Folie à Deux” was greentlit and granted a bigger budget. But the outsize price point is one that makes it difficult for most films to achieve profitability in the current box office landscape. Much of the reason for the follow-up film’s gargantuan price tag was because of fees for director Todd Phillips and Joaquin Phoenix (returning as disturbed stand-up Arthur Fleck), both of whom earned $20 million upfront, as well as Lady Gaga (joining as fellow Arkham inmate Harleen “Lee” Quinzel), who pocketed $12 million.

“If the filmmakers and studio were committed to making a sequel — and why wouldn’t they be after the first film made $1.08 billion — they faced a very difficult challenge of telling a new chapter that kept the audience engaged,” says analyst David A. Gross of movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research.

Box office analysts believe that Phillips alienated the DC fan base by bringing song and dance numbers into the sequel, resulting in the cavernous difference in sales between the first and second “Joker” entries. While the original was a dark and grisly drama that borrowed from Martin Scorsese’s filmography of “Taxi Driver” and “King of Comedy,” the next chapter plays as a fantasy musical — and includes covers of “That’s Life,” “Get Happy” and “For Once in My Life” — as Arthur Fleck awaits trial for murder.

“The first ‘Joker’ was a timely, fresh counterpoint to the dominant superhero narrative and tone, and it worked,” Gross adds. “The filmmakers deserve credit for making more unconventional creative choices in ‘Folie,’ adding the romantic angle with Lady Gaga. But this time nothing worked.”

“Joker” was released at boon times for comic book tentpoles, when the mere idea of superhero fatigue seemed laughable. But the genre has been proven to be less resilient in the post-pandemic era. “Joker: Folie à Deux” joins the ignominious trio of 2023’s “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” and “The Marvels” — all three are follow-ups to billion-dollar tentpoles that completely collapsed at the box office and became big money-losers. The sequel to 2018’s “Aquaman” tapped out with $439 million globally while the sequel to 2019’s “Captain Marvel” ended its run with just $206 million globally. Those misfires proved audiences will no longer show up simply because there’s a DC or Marvel logo in the title credits.

“Superheroes used to be able to guarantee some level of opening weekend grosses, but there’s no floor anymore,” says one rival studio executive on the condition of anonymity. “Tolerance for films that are ‘just OK’ doesn’t cut it anymore.”