Here’s Why the Box-Office Odds Don’t Favor ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’

Dull buzz after its Venice premiere is only part of the problem.

By this weekend, we’ll know whether October will be a hit or a bust. “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.), a $190 million-plus production before marketing, opens worldwide Friday against real concerns: It may not come anywhere close to the 2019 original.

With Joaquin Phoenix returning in the role that won him an Oscar, Lady Gaga joining with a musical touch, and Todd Phillips repeating as director, what could go wrong?

“Joker” had the benefit of a more-modest budget — $75 million plus marketing — but in 2019, foreign business was surging and international contributed 69 percent of its nearly $1.1 billion worldwide gross. Today, most studio titles gross about 50-50 domestic and foreign.

And while “Joker” won the Golden Lion at the 2019 Venice Film Festival, last month’s Lido launch of “Folie à Deux” generated a muted response. (To be fair, “Joker” had only a 59 Metacritic score; the sequel is at 51, not much lower.)

No one expects “Joker: Folie à Deux” to come close to the original’s $96 million opening (adjusted, closer to $110 million). Industry consensus is closer to $55 million-$60 million, but some sources suggest not even a $50 million opening is guaranteed.

That number will be key to the month’s total. The other major contender is “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony) with an $80 million-$120 million opening, but with an October 25 release it will only provide one week of revenue.

The month should easily exceed last year’s $475 million, which was salvaged by “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (it provided nearly a third of that total). That will make October the third consecutive month to better last year’s, a much-needed reversal.

September came in just shy of $600 million, the month’s best since 2019, but attendance was the lowest of any September on record. Credit to “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) for providing over 40 percent of the total with $251 million.

That reduced the year-to-date fall from 2023 to 11 percent, but “Transformers One” (Paramount) came in much lower than expected with $40 million. For October the worst-case scenario is about $575 million and that should keep the 2024 drop to a little over 10 percent.

That would be enough to position the full year toward $8 billion, still down from 2023’s $9.1 billion total. But a weak “Folie à Deux” might suggest that other anticipated late-year releases — including November’s “Wicked” (Universal) and “Gladiator II” (Paramount) — also may fall short.

Odds are excellent for “Venom: The Last Dance” after “Deadpool & Wolverine” proved Marvel fandom alive and well. The third “Venom” also comes after 2021 sequel “Let There Be Carnage” opened to $90 million and a $213 million domestic total. That should give the end of the month a surge.

In between, only one film seems certain to open over $10 million. That’s “Smile 2” (Paramount), opening October 18 as the year’s key Halloween-timed horror release. The R-rated sequel should open to at least $20 million.

Other titles of note include the expansion of “Saturday Night” (Sony), “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment), the animated “Piece by Piece” (Focus), “My Hero Academia: You’re Next” (Toho), and “Terrifier 3” (Cineverse) on October 11, and “Conclave” (Focus) October 25, all wide. None is likely to amass over $25 million during the month.

Among holdovers, the just-opened “Wild Robot” (Universal) will add the most, perhaps another $60 million. Others are either transitioning to home viewing or small grossers.

This month continues the trend of lagging in major-studio wide releases. There’s four, which includes the expansion of “Saturday Night.” In 2019, there were nine. A cutback in production remains a key factor in underwhelming grosses.

Anything that helps theaters reach $8 billion is a positive, but box-office predictions have become something of a mug’s game. When the public likes “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine,” or “Despicable Me 4,” they really like it and push results beyond all expectations. And when they don’t like “Furiosa,” “Transformers One,” or “The First Omen” — they similarly make their displeasure known.