'Uptober' or 'Selltober'? Crypto Markets Face October Identity Crisis
by Oliver Dale · BlockonomiTLDR
- “Uptober” mentions on social media have declined as crypto markets shed $200 billion in October
- Total crypto market capitalization fell 8% to $2.2 trillion since October began
- Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 on October 3rd before recovering slightly
- Historically, October has been bullish for Bitcoin in 9 out of the past 11 years
- Markets typically gain around mid-October if previous cycles are an indicator
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn in early October 2023, challenging the traditionally bullish sentiment associated with what some crypto enthusiasts call “Uptober.”
According to data from onchain analytics provider Santiment, social media mentions of “Uptober” have significantly declined as the crypto market shed approximately $200 billion in value since the beginning of the month.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by about 8% since October 1st, dropping to $2.2 trillion as reported by CoinGecko.
This decline has affected major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below the $60,000 mark on October 3rd before recovering slightly to trade above $61,000.
The current market situation contrasts with historical trends for Bitcoin in October. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has seen positive price action in nine Octobers, which contributed to the coining of the term “Uptober” among crypto enthusiasts.
The past five consecutive Octobers have witnessed gains ranging from 5.5% to 40% over the month, including during bear market years.
However, it’s worth noting that October’s gains typically materialize around the middle of the month if previous cycles are indicative.
For instance, in October 2023, Bitcoin initially lost about 7% in the first half of the month, dropping to $26,650 by October 13th, before surging almost 30% to end the month at $34,500.
The recent market decline has prompted a shift in social media sentiment. Instead of the usual “Uptober” excitement, traders have become more bearish, with memes and mentions of “Selltober” and “Octobear” gaining traction.
This change in sentiment has led some analysts to suggest that the lack of optimism could potentially open the door for a short-term rebound.
Maksim Balashevich, founder of Santiment, commented on the situation, saying, “Uptober excitement wanes as the market dips, which does open the door for a rebound. Whether the bigger downtrend is over remains to be seen.”
Some traders remain optimistic about a potential market turnaround. Veteran trader “Ash Crypto” suggested to his 1.1 million followers on social media platform X that Bitcoin might drop further to discourage belief in “Uptober” before potentially seeing a significant price increase.
Analysts from 10x Research offered insight into the market dynamics, noting that since March, many crypto bulls have been caught off guard, expecting the bull run to continue.
They pointed out that technical indicators suggested the rally was overextended.
The analysts also highlighted that sell-offs from early adopters and large token unlocks appear to be driving prices down, despite strong inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and increased futures leverage.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin has lost about 4.7% this month from its high of $64,000 on October 1st. The broader cryptocurrency market continues to face challenges, with the total market capitalization down 1.9% to mid-September levels.
While the “Uptober” narrative may be losing steam in the short term, historical data suggests that there’s still potential for market recovery as the month progresses.