EPS’ admission highlights AIADMK is still going through a sticky patch

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s recent acknowledgement of reduction in his party’s base by 10% reveals only one aspect of the overall picture.

If one is to convert votes secured by the party in six elections (three each to the Assembly and the Lok Sabha) since 2011 in terms of Assembly seats, the fall is quite steep over the years. The AIADMK netted the highest number of votes during the 2011 Assembly election: on an average, 85,759 votes per seat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the number of votes garnered by the party in an Assembly segment was 43,813, given that six Assembly segments constitute one Lok Sabha seat.

If the party’s position is further analysed, its good days lasted till 2016 — in other words, so long as Jayalalithaa was alive. It suffered a considerable fall in 2019 and recovered two years later. However, from 2021 to 2024, the party has suffered around 46% of loss in votes.

DMK’s comeback

In contrast, the AIADMK’s principal adversary, DMK, which saw its worst performance in 2014 during the given period, not only staged a comeback but also consolidated its position subsequently. When the party lost power in 2011, it polled an average of 66,532 votes per Assembly seat. This went down to about 46,900 during the 2014 Lok Sabha election. But it bounced back in the 2016 Assembly election, when it revived its alliance with the Congress, besides joining hands with the Indian Union Muslim League and a few other parties. Three years later, in the Lok Sabha election, the party’s tally touched the highest: 99,745 votes.

At that time, it acquired more allies — the two Left parties, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — in addition to the existing partners. The composition of the alliance marginally changed only in 2024, with the addition of actor Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam. In fact, the party’s average number of votes dipped in the 2021 and 2024 elections, but the weakened AIADMK and divided Opposition ensured its success.

A cross-section of AIADMK functionaries says Mr. Palaniswami, who is aware of the challenges in re-establishing the party’s vote base, is doing everything to improve the situation. The office-bearers hope that in due course, he will form a “formidable alliance” before the 2026 Assembly election and the party will return to power. It remains to be seen how he is going to undertake the task, given his repeated emphasis that there will be no more reconciliation with the camp headed by former coordinator of the party O. Panneerselvam, former interim general secretary V.K. Sasikala, and AMMK general secretary T.T.V. Dhinakaran.

52nd anniversary

Meanwhile, Mr. Palaniswami has announced that his party will celebrate the 52nd anniversary of the formation of the AIADMK by holding meetings for four days from October 17. He will address a meeting in Kancheepuram that day. Earlier in the day, he expressed concern over reports of the spread of dengue and urged the DMK government to take steps to contain it.

Published - October 05, 2024 12:03 am IST