Gap Between Value Of Oil Exports, Imports Continues To Narrow In 2024

by · Forbes
The ratio of U.S. exports to imports narrowed substantially beginning in 2017, as imports fell and ... [+] exports continued to rise. (All total in billions.)WorldCity

U.S. oil exports are contributing to “balancing” U.S. trade this year.

If that doesn’t seem remarkable, consider this: In 2016, exports made up less than 9% of U.S. oil trade, imports being that dominant.

This year, almost 42% of U.S. oil trade is an export, according to my analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data through August, the latest available.

That percentage — a record 41.94% — has the effect of tilting, albeit slightly, the balance of trade toward “equilibrium,” because it is slightly larger than the percentage of all U.S. trade that is an export this year. That figure is 39.21%.

Stated another way, for every dollar of U.S. trade this year, almost 42 cents of oil trade is an export while only 39 cents of overall trade is.

That percentage gap has narrowed significantly over the years, with exports first topping 1% of the total through the first eight months of 2013, 5% in 2015, 10% in 2017, 20% in 2018, 30% in 2019 and 40% last year at this time. (I generally compare data by looking at equal time periods in previous years.)

Oil exports have topped $75 billion through August the last three years, topping $80 billion for the first time this year. The total through August is $82.83 billion, a 9.73% increase. On an annual basis, U.S. oil exports did not top $75 billion until just three years ago.

The two biggest factors in this transformation were former President Barack Obama’s decision to end restrictions on oil exports that had been in place since the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 and the incredible growth in a hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, as a means to extract oil that had been difficult to impossible to reach.

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Almost 90% of all U.S. oil exports this year leave from Texas, led by the Port of Corpus Christi and ... [+] the Port of Houston.ustradenumbers.com

The vast majority of that oil leaves from the Port of Corpus Christi in Texas and its neighbor, the Port of Houston, fully 83%. More than half of all U.S. oil exports head to the Netherlands, largely a European transshipment hub; South Korea; Canada; the United Kingdom; and Singapore, also a transshipment hub.

Most of U.S. oil exports head to either Europe or Asia, not surprisingly.ustradenumbers.com

It is unclear what percentage of U.S. oil trade is an export by tonnage because of lack of transparency in the U.S. trade data that Customs and Border Protection provides to Census and Census releases to the public.

This graphic shows oil exports and imports by tonnage but does not include Canada and Mexico, since ... [+] the U.S. Census does not release tonnage data for the United States' top two trade partners. Since Canada supplies the majority of U.S. oil imports, it is safe to say that the United States does export more oil than import it by tonnage.WorldCity

Excluding oil trade with Canada and Mexico, the tonnage of U.S. exports has been greater than the tonnage of imports since 2020. Including Canada, that would not be the case then or today, since 58% of all U.S. oil imports by value come from Canada. Census data does not include tonnage for the vast majority of U.S. exports and imports with Canada and Mexico, its two largest trade partners.