EUR/USD struggles to gain ground below 1.0950 ahead of German inflation data

• EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0935 in Friday’s early European session. 
• A warmer US inflation reading supports Fed hawks' call for gradual interest rate cuts.
• The ECB is expected to deliver a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate next week.

The EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive around 1.0935 during the early European session on Friday. The hotter-than-expected US inflation reading on Thursday has provided some support to the Greenback and caps the upside for the pair. 

The warmer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading coupled with the stronger-than-expected September jobs report strengthens the chance that any future rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) should be gradual. The CME FedWatch Tool showed investors boost the odds that the Fed will trim its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) in November to 83.3% following the CPI release.

Market players will take more cues from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, along with the preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, which is due on Friday. The headline PPI is expected to show an increase of 1.6% YoY in September, while the core PPI is estimated to see a rise of 2.7% YoY in the same reported period. Nonetheless, if the report shows a softer outcome, this could undermine the US Dollar (USD) against the shared currency. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers support a rate cut amid the economic slowdown, which might exert some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR). The ECB is anticipated to lower rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate next week. More than 90% of economists polled by Reuters expect a reduction next week, with a similar majority betting on a follow-up move in December.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data from Germany is due later on Friday, which is expected to hold steady at 1.8% YoY in September. 

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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